铜：美国12月制造业PMI数据弱于预期，美联储会议纪要偏鹰，原油下跌，铜价震荡下行，昨日伦铜收跌0.83%至8251美元/吨，沪铜主力收至64200元/吨。产业层面，昨日LME库存增加25至88575吨，注销仓单比例微降，Cash/3M贴水16美元/吨。国内方面，昨日上海地区现货升水下调至80元/吨，下游买盘减弱，现货成交转淡。进出口方面，昨日国内现货进口亏损维持300元/吨左右，洋山铜溢价持平。废铜方面，昨日国内精废价差缩窄至1130元/吨，废铜替代优势降低。价格层面，中国短期内完成大规模感染强化了经济恢复预期，需求有望逐渐改善，不过随着春节临近，铜供需较难明显走强。海外通胀预期面临压力，对铜价形成压制。短期关注国内现货对价格的支撑力度，今日沪铜主力运行区间参考：64000-65000元/吨。

研究报告全文：五矿期货商品研究有色金属早报20230105铜美国12月制造业PMI数据弱于预期美联储会议纪要偏鹰原油下跌铜价震荡下行昨日伦铜收跌083至8251美元吨沪铜主力收至64200元吨产业层面昨日LME库存增加25至88575吨注销仓单比例微降Cash3M贴水16美元吨国内方面昨日上海地区现货升水下调至80元吨下游买盘减弱现货成交转淡进出口方面昨日国内现货进口亏损维持300元吨有色金属小组左右洋山铜溢价持平废铜方面昨日国内精废价差缩窄至1130元吨废铜替代优势降低价格层面中国短期内完成大规模感染强化了经济恢复预期需求有望逐渐改善不过随着春节吴坤金临近铜供需较难明显走强海外通胀预期面临压力对铜价形成压制短期关注国内现货对价从业资格号F3036210格的支撑力度今日沪铜主力运行区间参考64000-65000元吨交易咨询号Z00159240755-23375135wkjwkqhcn铝SMM现货A00铝报均价18020元吨A00铝锭升贴水平均价-40铝期货仓单40918吨较前一王震宇日增加252吨LME铝库存442425吨减少4825吨2023年1月03日SMM统计国内电解铝社会库存从业资格号F3082524561万吨较上周四库存增加68万吨较去年同期库存下降241万吨元旦假期期间电解铝0755-23375132到货量增加各个地区铝锭库存均有不同幅度增量尤其无锡地区到货增量明显出库量方面wangzywkqhcn上周周度出库量约1038万吨环比出库量下降127万吨且据市场反馈目前部分下游已陆续放假预计后期市场交易更偏清淡乘联会初步统计12月乘用车市场零售2425万辆同比去年增长15较上月增长4712月全国乘用车厂商批发2273万辆同比去年下降4较上月钟靖从业资格号F3035267增长12沪铝预计震荡偏弱运行主力合约参考运行区间17500-181000755-23375125zhongjwkqhcn锡国内上期所期货注册仓单上升138吨现为4902吨LME库存上升30吨现为3025吨长江有色锡1的平均价为209500元吨上游云南40锡精矿报收193500元吨根据中国海关公布的数据以及安泰科的折算2022年11月我国锡精矿进口实物量26552吨折金属量55430吨环比上涨1114同比上涨282精锡进口量为5174吨环比上涨473同比增长4093沪锡震荡行情预计延续主力参考运行区间204000-213000镍周三LME镍库存减216吨Cash3M维持高贴水价格方面LME镍价格跌68沪镍主力合约涨026国内基本面方面周三现货价格报236300240500元吨俄镍现货对换月02合约升水6750元吨金川镍现货升水6000元吨进出口方面根据模型测算镍板进口亏损缩窄弱需求现实国内供应呈过剩趋势镍铁方面印尼镍铁产量持续增长下总体供应维持增长趋势综合来看淡季和疫情等不利因素继续影响短期镍铁和精炼镍实际需求不锈钢需求方面上周无锡佛山社会库存继续累库供需双弱现实和节后经济回升预期博弈现货和期货主力合约价格震荡基差维持升水短期关注国内宏观政策利好和淡季产业链需求转弱对原料价格影响博弈中期关注印尼新能源原料新增产能释放进度预计沪镍主力合约震荡走势为主运行区间参考180000230000元吨有色金属重要日常数据汇总表2023年1月4日日频数据2023年1月5日盘面数据LME库存库存增减注销仓单注销仓单库存Cash-3mSHFE库存库存增减期货库存库存增减SHFE持仓持仓增减现货升贴水1-4m价差现货比值3月期比值进口比值进口盈亏铜885752510675120516005456978992914912234002291198260140781777785288铝44242548252410755449347595881756540918252427727438634040798785817438锌2775027251335048112725204532845277017183151843402507807738311553铅25150015300608363003521753833220118061455671635190856706998544275镍55164131465221182152002496104216093613493127922023年1月4日重要汇率利率美元兑人民币即期68966USDCNY即期690091个月美元LIBOR440133个月美元LIBOR478192023年1月5日无风险套利监控多空沪铜沪锌沪铝近月连一9224156连一连二20542162连二连三30439877近月连二255639100连一连三448788117近月连三4981007155铜LME铜库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价30000010040000120011000903500025000010001000080300007080090002000002500060200006008000150000501500070004010000400100000305000200600020050000050001050000010000-20040002021-032022-012022-072021-022021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12SHFE铜库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三持仓量SHFE收盘价2500002000065005300009000048000055008000020000015000430000450070000380000100001500003500330000600005000250028000050000100000230000150040000018000050030000500001300005000-5008000020000010000-150030000100002021-112021-122021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12铝LME铝库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价25000007035000035044003000003006039002000000250250000502003400150000020000015040150000100290010000003050100000240020050000500000-501900100-1000050000-15014002021-062022-012022-102021-022021-032021-042021-052021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-112022-12SHFE铝库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量270007000005000003000090065000025000250004000006002300060000020000550000210003000001500030050000019000100004500001700020000050000400000150003500000100000-30013000300000500011000250000010000-6009000200000锌LME锌库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价350000902000070049003000008060044001500070500250000390060100004002000005034003001500004029005000200301000002400100200500001900100005000-10014002022-032021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12SHFE锌库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量20000070003000030000018000016002800028000050001600002600026000014000030001100240002400001200002200022000010000010002000020000060080000180001800001000600001600016000040000100300014000140000200001200012000005000-400100001000002021-112021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12铅LME铅库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价14000070250270013000120000601100020025001000005090001502300800004070002100500010060000303000501900400002010000170020000101000003000-5015002022-032021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12SHFE铅库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量2500002000020017000180000160000150001600020000010014000010000150000120000150000500014000100000-10010000001300080000-20060000500012000500004000010000-3001100020000015000-4001000002021-052021-082021-112022-022021-022021-032021-042021-062021-072021-092021-102021-122022-012022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12镍LME镍库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价570003000006010000200052000800047000250000501500600042000100020000040400037000200050032000150000300270000200022000100000204000-500170006000120005000010-1000800070000010000-15002022-072021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12沪伦比价铜铝进口盈亏现货比价进口比价进口盈亏现货比价进口比价90040009001000200008508500-1000800-2000800-2000-4000750-3000750-6000-4000700-8000-5000700650-10000-6000650-12000600-70002021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-10锌铅进口盈亏现货比价进口比价进口盈亏现货比价进口比价95020001050010001000900-10000950-1000850900-2000-2000850800-3000-3000800-4000750750-4000-5000-6000700700-5000-7000650650-8000600-60002021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-10汇率利率美元兑人民币即期汇率在岸美元兑人民币即期汇率离岸1月libor3月libor607150694067306520631061002021-122022-102021-032021-082022-042021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-112022-122021-022021-042021-052021-062021-072021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12