【基本面信息】
　　大豆：截至12月8日当周，美国大豆出口销售料净增150-210万吨，其中2022/23年度大豆出口销售料净增150-200万吨，2023/24年度大豆出口销售料净增0-10万吨。当周，美国豆粕出口销售料净增15-37万吨，其中2022/23年度销售料净增15-35万吨，2023/24年度销售料净增0-2万吨。当周，美国2022/23年度豆油销售料净增0-0.5万吨。
　　白糖：基本面未出现明显变化，但主产国产量预期有所变化；印度土壤湿度偏高，有机构预估单边有下滑可能，巴西强降雨影响甘蔗收割，或造成一定幅度减产，支撑盘面。原白价差仍居高位，贸易流依旧偏紧。但从印度及巴西压榨情况来看，压榨数据正常，并未反馈减产预期；全球供应转过剩预期及泰国增产预期仍有较强压制。
　　棕榈油：根据MPOB报告，马来西亚棕榈油11月份供需结果如下：产量168万吨，环比下降7.33%；出口151万吨，环比增加0.92%；进口4.7万吨，环比下降31.88%；国内消费32.9万吨，环比增加14.72%；期末库存228万吨，环比下降4.98%。
　　

研究报告全文：农产品期权日报期权研究2022年12月15日星期四基本面信息大豆截至12月8日当周美国大豆出口销售料净增150-210万吨其中202223年度大豆出口销售料净增150-200万吨202324年度大豆出口销售料净增0-10万吨当周美国豆粕出口销售料净增15-37万吨其中202223年度销售料净增15-35万吨202324年度销售料净增0-2万吨当周美国202223年度豆油销售料净增0-05万吨白糖基本面未出现明显变化但主产国产量预期有所变化印度土壤湿度偏高有机构预估单边有下滑可能巴西强降雨影响甘蔗收割或造成一定幅度减产支撑盘面原白价差仍居高位贸易流依旧偏紧但从印度卢品先及巴西压榨情况来看压榨数据正常并未反馈减产预期全球供应转过剩预期及泰国增产预期仍有较强压制棕榈油根据MPOB报告马来西亚棕榈油11月份供需结果如下产量168万吨环比下降733出口151万吨投研经理环比增加092进口47万吨环比下降3188国内消费329万吨环比增加1472期末库存228万吨环比下0755-23375252降498lupxwkjyqhcom期权分析及操作建议从业资格号1玉米期权F3047321玉米C2303高位回落后连续报收阴线而后低位弱势盘整逐渐下行形成上方有压力的弱势偏空头趋势跌幅交易咨询号050报收于2789期权隐含波动率上升055报收于1132期权持仓量PCR报收于085操作建议玉米高位回落Z0015541后维持近两周以来的弱势偏空头下跌趋势期权隐含波动率窄幅波动持仓量PCR持续下降回落构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益若市场行情快速大跌或大跌则逐渐平仓离场如C2303SC2303-P-276010SC2303-P-278010和SC2303-C-278010SC2303-C-2800102豆粕期权豆粕M2203延续一个月以来的多头趋势上震荡上行温和上涨本周以来高位回落连续下跌先后跌破21天均线和55天均线支撑点跌幅160报收于3940豆粕期权隐含波动率涨幅028报收于1964期权持仓量PCR小幅下降报收于193操作建议豆粕多头趋势方向上高位回落连续下跌形成短期偏空头中长期偏多头趋势期权隐含波动率小幅上升期权持仓量PCR有所下降构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益若市场行情快速回落大跌则逐渐平仓离场如M2303SM2303-P-390010SM2303-P-385010和SM2303-C-395010SM2303-C-3900103棕榈油期权棕榈油P2302上周高位回落连续大幅下跌跌破M颈线形成上方有压力的空头趋势而后超跌反弹持续上涨涨幅098报收于7820期权隐含波动率小幅下降028至3109持仓量PCR持续上升报收于068操作建议棕榈油P2302延续近两周以来的弱势偏空头先后跌破20天均线和60天均线形成上方有压力的弱势偏空头趋势而后超低反弹回升期权隐含波动率小幅下降持仓量PCR窄幅盘整震荡构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则逐渐平仓离场如P2302SP2302-C-800010SP2302-C-790010和SP2302-P-770010SP2302-P-7800104白糖期权白糖SR303经过前两周以来空头压力线下弱势盘整本周以来超跌反弹连续报收阳线回升涨幅019报收于5715期权隐含波动率上升003至1141期权持仓量PCR报收于051操作建议白糖SR2303近两周以来低位弱势盘整震荡本周以来连续报收阳线大幅上涨而上方有前期高点压力期权隐含波动率小幅上升期权持仓量PCR小幅上升仍维持在较低水平构建卖出看涨看跌期权组合策略获取时间价值收益若市场行情快速大涨或大跌则逐渐平仓离场如SR303SSR303-C-570010SSR303-C-580010和SSR303-P-570010SSR303-P-5600105棉花期权棉花CF303经过短期的回暖上升后突破一个月以来的震荡区间上限形成短期行情温和上涨趋势涨幅040报收于13910棉花期权隐含波动率上升072报收于2287持仓量PCR窄幅波动报收于055操作建议棉花低位回暖上升后逐渐形成近一个月以来的偏多头市场行情格局棉花期权隐含波动率小幅上升持仓量PCR维持在较低水平构建看跌期权牛市价差组合策略获取方向性收益若市场行情快速大幅大跌则逐渐平仓离场如CF2303BCF2303P13600BCF2303P13600和SCF2303P14200SCF2303P14400市场行情期权品种标的合约收盘价涨跌涨跌幅成交量万成交额亿CC2303278900-1400-05033669438MM2303394000-6400-16018287319PP230278200076000982131652SRSR23035715001100019327518677CFCF2303139100055000406084211RMRM2303294700-2100-0715961769数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期货合成期权期权标的合约平值期权权利金C权利金P合成价格涨跌涨跌幅升贴水剩余天数到期日C23032780530040002793-2700-096400612023-02-13M2303395011800109003959-10100-2491900612023-02-13P23027800235502790077578400109-6350272023-01-10SR230357008350875056961300023-1900512023-02-03CF2303140003200045200138684900035-4200512023-02-03RM230329508950107002933-5050-169-1450512023-02-03数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部注平值是以主力月合约call与put权利金相减最小为基准平值合成期权升贴水平值call权利金-pu权利金-标的价格主力期权合约隐含波动率期权标的合约IMP-CIMP-PIMP-T变化MA20UPLOWC2303117910951132055112612221029M2303207218891964028216623461987P2302293133033109-086323034632998SR2303116011171141003129013941186CF2303235621782287072228324932072RM2303245624472451048264028232457数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期权合约持仓量PCR期权标的合约量-Call量-Put量-PCR变化持仓-Call持仓-Put持仓-PCR变化C230317459226141300497348262592085-000M230347068667751420053997577270193-004P230233459308240920253228121811068011SR230327342218440800045382927610051-002CF230326650167150630005045627900055-001RM230315863202821280281086312693117009数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部标的价量关系图1玉米主力合约走势图320070成交量万收盘价310060300050290040278700280030270020260010250002022-08-052022-10-252022-06-132022-06-162022-06-212022-06-242022-06-292022-07-042022-07-072022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-14图2豆粕主力合约走势图4600300成交量万收盘价440025042003957002004000380015036001003400503200300002022-07-252022-08-312022-10-172022-11-232022-06-132022-06-162022-06-212022-06-242022-06-292022-07-042022-07-072022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-14图3白糖主力合约走势图620050成交量万收盘价6100456000405900353058005696002557002056001555001054005530002022-08-152022-11-022022-06-132022-06-162022-06-212022-06-242022-06-292022-07-042022-07-072022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-14图4棉花主力合约走势图2160010020600成交量万收盘价901960080186007017600601660050156004013900001460030136002012600101160002022-08-052022-10-252022-06-132022-06-162022-06-212022-06-242022-06-292022-07-042022-07-072022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-14图5菜粕主力合约走势图成交量万收盘价1604400140400012010036008032003011006040280020240002022-08-182022-11-072022-06-132022-06-162022-06-212022-06-242022-06-292022-07-042022-07-072022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-14图6棕榈油主力合约走势图12000180成交量万收盘价160110001401000012010090008080006040700020600002022-08-102022-10-282022-06-132022-06-162022-06-212022-06-242022-06-292022-07-042022-07-072022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-14数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部玉米期权持仓分布玉米期权持仓分布图玉米期权持仓变化图25000100080020000600150004001000020005000-2000-40032402280232023602400244024802520256026002640268027202760280028402880292029603000308031603240332034003480228023202360240024402480252025602600264026802720276028002840288029202960300030803160332034003480OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC玉米期权最大未平仓玉米认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价3200300028002600240022002022-07-072022-10-122022-11-152022-06-132022-06-162022-06-212022-06-242022-06-292022-07-042022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-14玉米期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓玉米期权持仓量PCR玉米期权隐含波动率2003200OIPCRCLOSE22180310020160300018161402900141202800121002700102787008080260006025002022-08-182022-06-132022-06-212022-06-292022-07-072022-07-152022-07-252022-08-022022-08-102022-08-262022-09-052022-09-142022-09-222022-09-302022-10-172022-10-252022-11-022022-11-102022-11-182022-11-282022-12-062022-12-142022-12-062022-06-232022-07-052022-07-152022-07-272022-08-082022-08-182022-08-302022-09-092022-09-222022-10-112022-10-212022-11-022022-11-142022-11-242022-06-13IMPVMA20UPLOW豆粕期权持仓分布豆粕期权持仓分布图豆粕期权持仓变化图18000500016000400014000300012000100002000800010006000040002000-10000-2000320041002750290030503200335035003650380039504100425044004550470048502750290030503350350036503800395042504400455047004850OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC豆粕期权最大未平仓豆粕认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价480044004000360032002022-07-072022-10-122022-11-152022-06-132022-06-162022-06-212022-06-242022-06-292022-07-042022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-14豆粕期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓豆粕期权持仓量PCR豆粕期权隐含波动率3404400OIPCR4035300CLOSE4200395700302604000252022038001518036001014034002022-08-182022-06-132022-06-212022-06-292022-07-072022-07-152022-07-252022-08-022022-08-102022-08-262022-09-052022-09-142022-09-222022-09-302022-10-172022-10-252022-11-022022-11-102022-11-182022-11-282022-12-062022-12-142022-12-062022-06-232022-07-052022-07-152022-07-272022-08-082022-08-182022-08-302022-09-092022-09-222022-10-112022-10-212022-11-022022-11-142022-11-242022-06-13IMPVMA20UPLOW白糖期权持仓分布白糖期权持仓分布图白糖期权持仓变化图1000010009000800800060070004006000200500004000-20030002000-4001000-6000-8004800500052005400560058006000620064006600680048005000520054005600580060006200640066006800OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC白糖期权最大未平仓白糖认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价6800660064006200600058005600540052002022-07-072022-10-122022-11-152022-06-132022-06-162022-06-212022-06-242022-06-292022-07-042022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-14白糖期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓白糖期权持仓量PCR白糖期权隐含波动率080OIPCR620020CLOSE070600006015050569600580004056000301002054002022-08-182022-06-132022-06-212022-06-292022-07-072022-07-152022-07-252022-08-022022-08-102022-08-262022-09-052022-09-142022-09-222022-09-302022-10-172022-10-252022-11-022022-11-102022-11-182022-11-282022-12-062022-12-142022-12-062022-06-232022-07-052022-07-152022-07-272022-08-082022-08-182022-08-302022-09-092022-09-222022-10-112022-10-212022-11-022022-11-142022-11-242022-06-13IMPVMA20UPLOW棉花期权持仓分布棉花期权持仓分布图棉花期权持仓变化图8000600400600020040000-2002000-400-6001660016600178001140011400118001220012600130001340013800142001460015000154001580016200170001740018200186001900019400198002040021200220002280023600011000154001540023600110001100011400118001220012600130001340013800142001460015000158001620016600170001740017800182001860019000194001980020400212002200022800OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC棉花期权最大未平仓棉花认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价24000220002000018000160001400012000100002022-07-282022-09-302022-11-102022-06-132022-06-162022-06-212022-06-242022-06-292022-07-042022-07-072022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-14棉花期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓棉花期权持仓量PCR棉花期权隐含波动率OIPCRCLOSE1202120060110202005010019200090182004008017200300701390000162002006015200050142001004013200003012200020112002022-08-182022-06-132022-06-212022-06-292022-07-072022-07-152022-07-252022-08-022022-08-102022-08-262022-09-052022-09-142022-09-222022-09-302022-10-172022-10-252022-11-022022-11-102022-11-182022-11-282022-12-062022-12-142022-12-062022-06-232022-07-052022-07-152022-07-272022-08-082022-08-182022-08-302022-09-092022-09-222022-10-112022-10-212022-11-022022-11-142022-11-242022-06-13IMPVMA20UPLOW菜粕期权持仓分布菜粕期权持仓分布图菜粕期权持仓变化图180060016004001400120020010000800600-200400-4002000232523252375242524752550265027502850295030503150325033503450355022752275-600237523752275227523252425247525502650275028502950305031503250335034503550OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC菜粕期权最大未平仓菜粕认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价4400400036003200280024002022-07-072022-10-122022-11-152022-06-132022-06-162022-06-212022-06-242022-06-292022-07-042022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-14菜粕期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓菜粕期权持仓量PCR菜粕期权隐含波动率454404800OIPCRCLOSE4038044003203540002603036002002530110032001402008028000202400152022-08-102022-06-132022-06-212022-06-292022-07-072022-07-152022-07-252022-08-022022-08-182022-08-262022-09-052022-09-142022-09-222022-09-302022-10-172022-10-252022-11-022022-11-102022-11-182022-11-282022-12-062022-12-142022-10-172022-10-262022-06-132022-06-222022-07-012022-07-122022-07-212022-08-012022-08-102022-08-192022-08-302022-09-082022-09-202022-09-292022-11-042022-11-152022-11-242022-12-052022-12-14IMPVMA20UPLOW棕榈油期权持仓分布棕榈油期权持仓分布图棕榈油期权持仓变化图80001000700080060006004005000200400003000-2002000-4001000-6000-80010000100001060011200118001240013000100001060011200118001240013000640064008500940058005800610067007000730076007900820088009100940097005800610064006700700073007600790082008500880091009700OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC棕榈油期权最大未平仓棕榈油认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价13000120001100010000900080007000600050002022-07-282022-09-302022-11-102022-06-132022-06-162022-06-212022-06-242022-06-292022-07-042022-07-072022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-14棕榈油期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓棕榈油期权持仓量PCR棕榈油期权隐含波动率6020013000OIPCR55CLOSE120005011000451404010000359000300808000257000201502060002022-08-102022-06-132022-06-212022-06-292022-07-072022-07-152022-07-252022-08-022022-08-182022-08-262022-09-052022-09-142022-09-222022-09-302022-10-172022-10-252022-11-022022-11-102022-11-182022-11-282022-12-062022-12-142022-06-132022-06-222022-07-012022-07-122022-07-212022-08-012022-08-102022-08-192022-08-302022-09-082022-09-202022-09-292022-10-172022-10-262022-11-042022-11-152022-11-242022-12-052022-12-14IMPVMA20UPLOW免责声明五矿期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构已具备有商品期货经纪金融期货经纪资产管理期货交易咨询等业务资格本刊所有信息均建立在可靠的资料来源基础上我们力求能为您提供精确的数据客观的分析和全面的观点但我们必须声明对所有信息可能导致的任何损失概不负责本报告并不提供量身定制的交易建议报告的撰写并未虑及读者的具体财务状况及目标五矿期货研究团队建议交易者应独立评估特定的交易和战略并鼓励交易者征求专业财务顾问的意见具体的交易或战略是否恰当取决于交易者自身的状况和目标文中所提及的任何观点都仅供参考不构成买卖建议版权声明本报告版权为五矿期货有限公司所有本刊所含文字数据和图表未经五矿期货有限公司书面许可任何人不得以电子机械影印录音或其它任何形式复制传播或存储于任何检索系统不经许可复制本刊任何内容皆属违反版权法行为可能将受到法律起诉并承担与之相关的所有损失赔偿和法律费用五矿期货分支机构深圳总部业务一部深圳市南山区滨海大道3165号五矿金融大厦13-16层电话400-888-5398电话0755-83252740业务二部业务三部电话0755-88917165电话0755-83752356业务四部业务五部电话010-68331868-183电话028-85053476深圳营业部北京分公司深圳市福田区福华三路1006号诺德大厦30D1北京市海淀区首体南路6号新世纪世行饭店写字楼1253室电话0755-83752310电话010-68332068上海分公司成都分公司上海市浦东新区向城路288号国华人寿金融大厦902903成都高新区天府大道北段1288号1幢3单元12层12041205电话021-58784529电话028-86131072青岛分公司北京营业部山东省青岛市东海西路35号太平洋中心1写字楼409北京市丰台区广安路9号院6号楼408409电话0532-85780820电话010-64185322广州营业部湛江营业部广东省广州市天河区珠江西路17号广晟国际大厦24楼2407广东省湛江市开发区乐山东路35号银隆广场12层A1210室电话020-29117582电话0759-2856220天津营业部西安营业部天津市滨海高新区华苑产业区梅苑路5号金座广场2101-陕西省西安市新城区纬什街新科路1号楼一层2102电话029-87572985电话022-23778878宁波中山西路营业部重庆营业部浙江省宁波市海曙区布政巷16号12楼1205室重庆市江北区江北城西大街25号11-1电话0574-87330527电话023-67078086郑州营业部南通营业部郑州市未来路69号未来大厦16层1612号江苏省南通市青年东路81号南通大饭店B楼财富中心2003室电话0371-65619030电话0513-81026105杭州民心路营业部台州爱华路营业部浙江省杭州市江干区万银大厦1408室浙江省台州市椒江区爱华新台州大厦8-A电话0571-81969926电话0576-89811511济南营业部昆明营业部山东省济南市历下区山大路201号天业科技商务大厦401云南省昆明市盘龙区北京路612号银海国际公寓D座3201室427室电话0871-63338532电话0531-83192255大连营业部唐山营业部辽宁省大连市沙河口区会展路大连国际金融中心A座大连期河北省唐山市路北区军鑫里凤城国贸1楼21层2104号货大厦2001号电话0315-5936395电话0411-84800452武汉营业部湖北省武汉市江岸区三阳路8号天悦星辰A栋26楼2602室电话0755-23375007