26日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力2401收于14150元/吨，日内跌幅2.55%，持仓量增仓3347手至72215手。百川硅参考价15252元/吨，较上一交易日下调45元/吨。其中#553各地价格区间回落至14150-15200元/吨，#421价格区间回落至15850-16400元/吨。最低交割品#421价格降至13900元/吨，现货贴水250元/吨。近期11月注销仓单压力开始提前释放，大量仓单陆续转入1月合约，11-12合约间高价差仍在。现货询单和需求转淡，持货商出货压力较大、低价交易频出。当前#421盘面升水仍低于现货，期转现接纳程度高于市场预期。目前成本端上行支撑和需求端消化难题并存，后市分歧较多，预计短期市场谨慎态势主导，硅价维持弱势盘整，仍需持续关注仓单去向

研究报告全文：工业硅日报工业硅日报2023年10月27日一研究观点点评26日工业硅震荡偏弱主力2401收于14150元吨日内跌幅255持仓量增仓3347手至72215手百川硅参考价15252元吨较上一交易日下调45元吨其中553各地价格区间回落至14150-15200元吨421价格区间回落至15850-16400元吨最低交割品421价格降至13900元吨现货贴水250元吨近期11月注销仓单压力开始提前释放大量仓单陆续转入1月合约11-12合约间高价差仍在现货询单和需求转淡持货商出货压力较大低价交易频出当前421盘面升水仍低于现货期转现接纳程度高于市场预期目前成本端上行支撑和需求端消化难题并存后市分歧较多预计短期市场谨慎态势主导硅价维持弱势盘整仍需持续关注仓单去向请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES1工业硅日报二日度数据监测硅2023102620231025涨跌SIZLGFE1415014440-290期货结算价元吨SI00GFE1322013600-380不通氧553硅华东1445014550-100不通氧553硅黄埔港1435014450-100不通氧553现货价格不通氧553硅天津港1435014400-50元吨不通氧553硅昆明1425014350-100不通氧553硅四川1415014200-50不通氧553硅上海1480014900-100通氧553硅华东1515015250-100通氧553现货价格通氧553硅黄埔港1520015300-100元吨通氧553硅天津港1505015150-100通氧553硅昆明1520015250-50421硅华东1590015950-50421硅有机硅用华东1630016350-50421硅黄埔港1600016050-50421现货价格元421硅天津港1600016050-50吨421硅昆明1585015900-50421硅有机硅用昆明1640016450-50421硅四川16200162000无锡杭州为基准交割区域天津贴水100元吨广州贴水150元吨昆明贴水500元吨乌鲁木齐贴水700元吨不通氧553硅华东1445014550-100不通氧553硅黄埔港1450014600-100不通氧553现货价格不通氧553硅天津港1445014500-50元吨不通氧553硅昆明1475014850-100市场行情不通氧553硅四川1470014750-50421硅华东1590015950-50421硅有机硅用华东1630016350-50421硅黄埔港1615016200-50421现货价格元421硅天津港1610016150-50吨421硅昆明1635016400-50421硅有机硅用昆明1690016950-50421硅四川16750167500现货553与421价差170017000按广期所421升水2000元吨的价差设定当前最低交割品价格1390013950-50现货升贴水-250-490240下游DMC华东市场14800148000DMC合盛硅业14500145000有机硅元吨生胶15000150000107胶15300153000二甲基硅油16200162000复投料单晶用7600078000-2000多晶硅元吨致密料单晶用7400076000-2000菜花料单晶用7200074000-2000硅片元片单晶M6M10G12253255345253255345000000000电池片元瓦单晶M6M10G12061051053061052054000-001-001单晶perc单面16618221010711113109116118-002-006-005光伏组件元瓦单晶perc双面16618221010711711911117119-003000000本周上周涨跌黄埔港26000250001000天津港3300035000-2000工业硅吨社会昆明港1200013000-1000库存厂库5920059700-500DMC吨厂库49000461002900多晶硅吨厂库48500466501850资料来源SMM百川盈孚iFindGFE光大期货研究所请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES2工业硅日报三图表分析31工业硅及成本端价格图表1工业硅各牌号价格元吨图表2牌号价差单位元吨金属硅553昆明港金属硅553通氧昆明港金属硅421昆明港通氧553-不通氧553421-55370000350006000030000500002500040000200003000015000200001000010000500000-5000202072202083202092202281202052202189202197202211202359202367202376202384202394202111320212192021323202142320215282021630202173020218312022112202221820223222022425202253020226302022831202211920221292023111202321720233212023421202352620236292023731202383020231092020531202062920207282020826202092420211182021216202131720214152021514202161220217112021106202111420211232022130202222820223292022427202252620226242022723202282120229192023113202321120233122023410202310320201023202011212020122020221018202211162022121520201012202011112020121120211011202111102021121020221010图表3地域价差单位元吨图表4用电价格元度553硅天津港-昆明港421硅天津港-昆明港用电价新疆用电价云南德宏用电价四川凉山10000078000066000054000042000030-200002-400001-6000020207220208320209220228120221220222520225120226420227820233320234620238320239620211132021219202132320214232021528202163020217302021831202211220222182022322202242520225302022630202283120221192022129202311120232172023321202342120235262023629202373120238302023109202211920222222022311202232820224142022518202262120227252022811202282820229142022101202211420221282023111202312820232142023320202342320235102023527202361320236302023717202382020239232020101220201111202012112021101120211110202112102022101020221018202211212022122520231010图表5硅石价格元吨图表6精煤价格元吨硅石湖北硅石云南硅石江西硅煤宁夏硅煤新疆硅煤陕西硅煤贵州80040007003500600300050025004002000300150020010001005000020207220214820226220233920208620213420227720232220218220221320224120229220232320235220226620237720209102021128202161720218262021114202211320223242022811202351820237272023105202151320217222021930202112920222172022428202291520234132023622202383120218242022125202221620223102022628202272020228112022924202322520233192023410202382020239112023103202191520211072022423202251520221172023112202352420236152023729202011192022102020221229202010152020122420221124202112122022101620211120202211292022122120211029资料来源百川盈孚光大期货研究所请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES3工业硅日报32下游产成品价格图表7DMC价格元吨图表8有机硅产成品价格元吨DMC市场均价DMC合盛硅业浙江有机硅生胶市场均价有机硅107胶市场均价有机硅二甲基硅油市场均价700007000060000600005000050000400004000030000300002000020000100001000000202072202214202222202233202241202379202387202399202072202139202143202186202213202258202262202327202334202377202381202073120208292020927202112120212192021320202141820215172021615202171420218122021910202110920211172021126202243020225292022627202272620228242022922202311620232142023315202341320235122023610202310820207272020821202091520201142021118202121220214282021523202161720217122021831202192520211292022128202222220223192022413202262720227222022816202291020221052023113202332920234232023518202361220238262023920202010262020112420201223202210212022111920221218202010102020112920201224202110202021111420221030202211242022121920231015图表9多晶硅价格元吨图表10硅片价格美元片元片多晶硅复投料单晶用多晶硅致密料单晶用多晶硅菜花料单晶用硅片单晶M6市场参考价硅片多晶166mm175m欧洲硅片单晶166mm175m欧洲350000809083000007076250000065200000054150000043031000002025000010100020219220222920223120226920228820232420234520236420238320218120219820222720224520226120227920229420232320234120235920237520219222021111202212020223212022410202243020225202022629202271920228282022917202210720221262023115202322420233162023425202351520236242023714202382320239122023102202182020219272021114202211920222262022317202242420225132022620202272820228162022923202212820231152023222202331320234202023528202361620237242023812202383120211012202111212021121120211231202210272022111620221226202310222021101620211123202112122021123120221012202210312022111920221227图表11电池片价格元瓦图表12组件价格元瓦单晶PERC电池片M6-166mm单晶PERC电池片M10-182mm22单晶PERC组件单面-166mm单晶PERC组件单面-210mm单晶PERC电池片G12-210mm单晶PERC组件双面-166mm单晶PERC组件双面-210mm1621412181160806140402120120221420223220224720226120227620228920232920237320238420239520221202022214202231820224252022516202262020227222022825202291320229292022119202311720232272023315202333120234192023510202352620236132023719202382420239272022102420221125202212132022122920231019资料来源百川盈孚SMM光大期货研究所请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES4工业硅日报33库存图表13工业硅三大港口社会库存吨图表14工业硅周度库存变化吨黄埔港库存昆明港库存天津港库存14库存变化库存合计612105846342210-20-42018152018612018972019212020652021252021722022342023772018223201841320187202019322201951020196282019816201910420201102020228202041720207242020911202132620215142021820202110820221142022422202261020227292022916202211420232102023331202351920238252018102620181214201911222020103020201218202111262022122320231013图表15工业硅周度产量吨图表16工业硅厂库库存吨1000002023年2022年2021年2020年2019年302019年2020年2021年2022年2023年90000258000070000206000015500001040000530000200000图表17DMC周度产量库存吨图表18多晶硅周度产量库存吨有机硅中间体工厂库存有机硅中间体周度产量多晶硅工厂库存多晶硅周度产量900001000008000090000800007000070000600006000050000500004000040000300003000020000200001000010000002021642022242022712023332023692019142019962020582021182019142019822020732022992023472021642022562019222201941220197192020320202062620208142020102202122620217232022325202210720231132023915201953120201312021416202191020225132022819202342120237282019510201912620202282020522202092520211292021423202171620218272022211202261720231132023630202381120192152019329201962120199132020117202041020208142020116202131220211082022325202272920221222023224202351920239222019102520191213202011202021102920221125202112172020121820211119202112312022102120191025资料来源百川盈孚光大期货研究所请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES5工业硅日报34成本利润图表19三大主产地平均成本水平元吨图表20三大主产地平均利润水平元吨四川毛利润新疆毛利润云南毛利润四川成本新疆成本云南成本900020000800019000700018000600017000500016000400015000300014000200013000100012000011000-100020221720224120226320228520233320235520237720239720221720224120226320228520233320235520237720239720221282022218202231120224222022513202262420227152022826202291620221072022129202312020232102023324202341420235262023615202372820238182023928202212820222182022311202242220225132022624202271520228262022916202210720221292023120202321020233242023414202352620236152023728202381820239282022102820221118202212302023102020221028202211182022123020231020图表21工业硅周度成本利润元吨图表22铝合金加工行业利润元吨金属硅利润金属硅成本ADC12华东加工费长江A356铸造铝合金加工费长江ZL102铸造铝合金加工费45000600040000500035000400030000300025000200020000100015000010000-10005000-20000-5000201815201839202043202065202087202271202292202316201851120187132018914201911820193222019524201972620199272020131202010920212122021416202161820218202022225202242920221142023310202351920237282019-01-022019-02-152019-03-262019-05-082019-06-172019-07-242019-08-302019-10-162019-11-222019-12-312020-02-172020-03-252020-05-072020-06-152020-07-242020-09-012020-10-162020-11-242020-12-312021-02-092021-03-252021-05-072021-06-162021-07-232021-08-312021-10-182021-11-242021-12-312022-02-162022-03-252022-05-102022-06-172022-07-262022-09-012022-10-182022-11-242023-01-032023-02-162023-03-272023-05-092023-06-152023-07-262023-09-012023-10-182018111620191129202012112021102220211224图表23DMC成本利润元吨图表24多晶硅成本利润元吨多晶硅周度利润多晶硅周度成本DMC周度利润DMC周度成本300000450004000025000035000300002000002500015000020000150001000001000050005000000-5000202027202036202043202051202118202125202135202142202217202224202234202241202316202323202333201928201996202043202058202186202234202248201914201982202118202172202362202377202011020205292020626202072420208212020918202143020215282021625202172320218202021917202242920225272022624202272220228192022916202212920233312023428202352620236232023721202381820239152019315201941920195242020228202082120209252021212202131920214232021910202212820225132022826202293020221142023217202332420234282023811202391520196282020124202061220207172020124202152820226172022722202212920231132019101120191115202010302021101520211119202310202019122020211224201910182019111520191213202010162020111320201211202110152021111220211210202210142022111120231013资料来源百川盈孚光大期货研究请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES6工业硅日报有色研究团队成员介绍展大鹏理科硕士现任光大期货研究所有色研究总监贵金属资深研究员黄金中级投资分析师上期所优秀金属分析师期货日报证券时报最佳工业品期货分析师十多年商品研究经验服务于多家现货龙头企业在公开报刊杂志发表专业文章数十篇长期接受期货日报中证报上证报证券时报第一财经华夏时报等多家媒体采访所在团队曾荣获第十五届期货日报证券时报最佳金属产业期货研究团队奖上期所2016年度有色金属优秀产业团队称号期货从业资格号F3013795交易咨询从业证书号Z0013582刘轶男英国利物浦大学理学硕士现任光大期货研究所有色研究员主要研究方向为锌锡深入国内外有色产业扎根产业链上下游关注行业热点和时事政策服务于多家产业龙头企业长期在期货日报中证报第一财经华夏时报等国内主流财经媒体发表观点撰写多篇深度专题报告和热点解读报告获得客户高度认可期货从业资格号F3030849交易咨询从业证书号Z0016041王珩澳大利亚阿德莱德大学金融学硕士现任光大期货研究所有色研究员主要研究方向为铝硅扎根国内有色行业研究跟踪新能源产业链动态为客户提供及时的热点和政策解读撰写多篇深度报告获得客户高度认可深入套期保值会计及套保信披方面研究更好的服务上市公司风险管理期货从业资格号F3080733朱希英国华威大学理学硕士现任光大期货研究所有色研究员主要研究方向为镍锂期货从业资格号F03109968请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES7工业硅日报免责声明本报告的信息均来源于公开资料我公司对这些信息的准确性可靠性和完整性不作任何保证也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更我们已力求报告内容的客观公正但文中的观点结论和建议仅供参考并不构成任何具体产品业务的推介以及相关品种的操作依据和建议投资者据此作出的任何投资决策自负盈亏与本公司和作者无关请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES8