12日工业硅震荡偏强，主力2310收于14435元/吨，日内涨幅0.17%，持仓量增仓3714手至88147手。百川硅参考价14640元/吨，较上个交易日上涨132元/吨。其中#553各地价格区间涨至13750-14750元/吨，#421价格区间涨至15450-15900元/吨。最低交割品#421价格13450元/吨，现货贴水850元/吨。新疆大厂继续上调报价，421期限交易热度不减、硅厂不断锁价交单后，生产动力充足、有效释放前期积压的库存压力。需求旺季效应渐浓，特别是晶硅板块有持续走强的征兆，下游出现阶段供不应求，叠加成本端硅煤价格上行支撑，利多因素交织给予硅厂不断挺价的底气，但随着现货从厂库不断转移至交割库后，市场也存在对后市担忧的声音。预计短期硅价偏强运行动力仍在，涨幅保持谨慎

研究报告全文：工业硅日报工业硅日报2023年9月13日一研究观点点评12日工业硅震荡偏强主力2310收于14435元吨日内涨幅017持仓量增仓3714手至88147手百川硅参考价14640元吨较上个交易日上涨132元吨其中553各地价格区间涨至13750-14750元吨421价格区间涨至15450-15900元吨最低交割品421价格13450元吨现货贴水850元吨新疆大厂继续上调报价421期限交易热度不减硅厂不断锁价交单后生产动力充足有效释放前期积压的库存压力需求旺季效应渐浓特别是晶硅板块有持续走强的征兆下游出现阶段供不应求叠加成本端硅煤价格上行支撑利多因素交织给予硅厂不断挺价的底气但随着现货从厂库不断转移至交割库后市场也存在对后市担忧的声音预计短期硅价偏强运行动力仍在涨幅保持谨慎请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES1工业硅日报二日度数据监测硅20239122023911涨跌SI00GFE143001422080期货结算价元吨SI01GFE143551433520不通氧553硅华东1415014000150不通氧553硅黄埔港1410013950150不通氧553现货价格不通氧553硅天津港1405013900150元吨不通氧553硅昆明1395013800150不通氧553硅四川1375013600150不通氧553硅上海1450014400100通氧553硅华东1470014550150通氧553现货价格通氧553硅黄埔港1475014600150元吨通氧553硅天津港1460014450150通氧553硅昆明1465014550100421硅华东1545015300150421硅有机硅用华东1575015600150421硅黄埔港1560015400200421现货价格元421硅天津港1560015400200吨421硅昆明1560015500100421硅有机硅用昆明1585015750100421硅四川15900159000无锡杭州为基准交割区域天津贴水100元吨广州贴水150元吨昆明贴水500元吨乌鲁木齐贴水700元吨不通氧553硅华东1415014000150不通氧553硅黄埔港1425014100150不通氧553现货价格不通氧553硅天津港1415014000150元吨不通氧553硅昆明1445014300150市场行情不通氧553硅四川1430014150150421硅华东1545015300150421硅有机硅用华东1575015600150421硅黄埔港1575015550200421现货价格元421硅天津港1570015500200吨421硅昆明1610016000100421硅有机硅用昆明1635016250100421硅四川16450164500现货553与421价差170017000按广期所421升水2000元吨的价差设定当前最低交割品价格1345013300150现货升贴水-850-92070下游DMC华东市场1350013300200DMC东岳有机硅13600136000DMC合盛硅业1360013300300有机硅元吨生胶13600136000107胶14100141000二甲基硅油15500155000复投料单晶用81000810000多晶硅元吨致密料单晶用79000790000菜花料单晶用77000770000硅片元片单晶M6M10G12305335434305335434000000000电池片元瓦单晶M6M10G12061074073061074073000000000单晶perc单面166182210116122125116122125000000000光伏组件元瓦单晶perc双面166182210117123125117123125000000000本周上周涨跌黄埔港36000330003000天津港36000360000工业硅吨社会昆明港26000200006000库存厂库74320686005720DMC吨厂库44200421002100多晶硅吨厂库6115072250-11100资料来源SMM百川盈孚iFindGFE光大期货研究所请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES2工业硅日报三图表分析31工业硅及成本端价格图表1工业硅各牌号价格元吨图表2牌号价差单位元吨金属硅553昆明港金属硅553通氧昆明港金属硅421昆明港通氧553-不通氧553421-55370000350006000030000500002500040000200003000015000200001000010000500000-50002020722021152021232023272023382023472023692023982020522021192021262021362021432021512022182022252022352022422023172023242023342023412020731202083120209292020115202012420213112021412202151420216152021714202181220219102022118202222320223242022426202253020226292022728202282620229272022112202212120235112023712202381020205302020627202072520208222020919202152920216262021724202182120219182022430202252820226252022723202282020229172023429202352720236242023722202382120201017202011142020121220211016202111132021121120221015202211122022121020211020202111182021121720221230图表3地域价差单位元吨图表4用电价格元度553硅天津港-昆明港421硅天津港-昆明港用电价新疆用电价云南德宏用电价四川凉山10000078000066000054000042000030-200002-400001-600002020722020832020922022812022122022212022332022422022522022612022712021113202121920213232021423202152820216302021730202183120221122022218202232220224252022530202263020228312022119202212920231112023217202332120234212023526202362920237312023830202211720222162022318202241720225172022616202271620227312022815202283020229142022929202311220231272023211202322620233132023328202341220234272023512202352720236112023626202371120237262023810202382520201012202011112020121120211011202111102021121020221010202210142022102920221113202211282022121320221228图表5硅石价格元吨图表6精煤价格元吨硅石湖北硅石云南硅石江西硅煤宁夏硅煤新疆硅煤陕西硅煤贵州800400070035006003000500250040020003001500200100010050000202072202085202098202154202236202249202391202167202316202329202252202295202343202182202227202274202319202365202387202112220212252021331202181420219172022131202251320228232022926202212320233152023418202352220236252021711202261620227202023729202182320211042021126202211720222282022411202261320227252022926202211720231302023220202351520236262023717202382820219132022321202252320228152023313202342420201012202110212021112420221030202011152020121920211228202111152022121920211227202210172022112820211025资料来源百川盈孚光大期货研究所请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES3工业硅日报32下游产成品价格图表7DMC价格元吨图表8有机硅产成品价格元吨DMC市场均价DMC合盛硅业浙江有机硅生胶市场均价有机硅107胶市场均价有机硅二甲基硅油市场均价70000700006000060000500005000040000400003000030000200002000010000100000020207220214820215620216320217120224720225520226220232920233920234620235420236120207220212320216320219720221520225520228920229220234620238420207302020827202092420211142021211202131120217292021826202192320221132022210202231020226302022728202282520229222023112202362920237272023828202072620208192020912202010620211102021227202132320214162021510202162720217212021814202110120221292022222202231820224112022529202262220227162022926202212720231242023217202331320234302023524202361720237112023828202010222020111920201217202110212021111820211216202210202022111720221215202010302020112320201217202110252021111820211212202210202022111320221231图表9多晶硅价格元吨图表10硅片价格美元片元片多晶硅复投料单晶用多晶硅致密料单晶用多晶硅菜花料单晶用硅片单晶M6市场参考价硅片多晶166mm175m欧洲硅片单晶166mm175m欧洲350000809083000007076250000065200000054150000043031000002025000010100020219220222120225720227320231920233720235320238620218120219820222720224520226120227920229420232320234120235920237520219212021126202211320222202022311202233020224182022526202261420227222022810202282920229172022106202212220231282023216202332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