PTA
　　上周PTA供需双减，PTA社会库存变化不大，4月下主港货源基差收窄，5月底货源贴水扩大。上游方面，PX在检修季和调油需求支撑下价格重心抬升，清明节后是季节性消费淡季，聚酯及下游开工走弱，整体亏损，5-6月PTA面临累库压力。总体来看PTA成本支撑强，供需面偏弱，价格预计呈震荡走势，建议配合企业敞口设计累沽或累购策略。
　　MEG
　　上周乙二醇供应稳定，下游聚酯开工回落，乙二醇港口库存环比上升。国内部分检修装置重启延迟，乙二醇供应回升的速度较慢，聚酯及终端开工走弱。三江石化原设计100万吨/年的MEG装置计划于4月底投料开车，预计MEG于5月上旬出料，乙二醇4-5月检修装置集中，下游季节性淡季开工回落，二季度供需紧平衡，估值低，价格支撑较强。
　　PF
　　上周涤纶短纤工厂在亏损的压力下减产，下游纯涤纱开工相对平稳，短纤库存环比下降，下游纯涤纱成品库存继续累库，涤纱库存高于往年。从美元计价来看，3月我国纺织服装出口额同比增长19.7%，其中纺织纱线、织物及制品同比增长9.1%，服装及附件同比增长31.9%，前期出口需求回落的预期与现实的数据向矛盾，关注出口的连续性。清明节后下游处于季节性淡季，在涤纱的高库存背景下可能仍以库存去化为主，现实偏弱预期偏强，在原料价格回落下加工费回升。
　　短期品种强弱排序：PF>EG>TA
　　

研究报告全文：聚酯产业链周报能化投资研究部隋斐投资咨询资格证号Z0017025230407-230417银河能化微信公众号目录第一章综述1第二章估值5第三章供需20GALAXYFUTURES1目录第一章综述11产业链周度数据观点GALAXYFUTURES211产业链周度数据观点PTA上周PTA供需双减PTA社会库存变化不大4月下主港货源基差收窄5月底货源贴水扩大上游方面PX在检修季和调油需求支撑下价格重心抬升清明节后是季节性消费淡季聚酯及下游开工走弱整体亏损5-6月PTA面临累库压力总体来看PTA成本支撑强供需面偏弱价格预计呈震荡走势建议配合企业敞口设计累沽或累购策略MEG上周乙二醇供应稳定下游聚酯开工回落乙二醇港口库存环比上升国内部分检修装置重启延迟乙二醇供应回升的速度较慢聚酯及终端开工走弱三江石化原设计100万吨年的MEG装置计划于4月底投料开车预计MEG于5月上旬出料乙二醇4-5月检修装置集中下游季节性淡季开工回落二季度供需紧平衡估值低价格支撑较强PF上周涤纶短纤工厂在亏损的压力下减产下游纯涤纱开工相对平稳短纤库存环比下降下游纯涤纱成品库存继续累库涤纱库存高于往年从美元计价来看3月我国纺织服装出口额同比增长197其中纺织纱线织物及制品同比增长91服装及附件同比增长319前期出口需求回落的预期与现实的数据向矛盾关注出口的连续性清明节后下游处于季节性淡季在涤纱的高库存背景下可能仍以库存去化为主现实偏弱预期偏强在原料价格回落下加工费回升短期品种强弱排序PFEGTAGALAXYFUTURES3目录第一章综述1第二章估值5第三章供需20GALAXYFUTURES4目录第二章估值21PX22PTA23MEG24聚酯GALAXYFUTURES521PX-价格GALAXYFUTURES621PX-价差利润PX-BLENT亚洲PX-NAP亚洲9008008007007006006005005004004003003002002001001000011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120172018201920202017201820192020202120222023202120222023PX-MX韩国PX理论利润5002500400200015003001000500200050010010001500011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120172018201920201002021202220232017201820192020202120222023GALAXYFUTURES721PX-价差利润PX韩国-美国亚洲甲苯调油价差甲苯美国-韩国200500100010040008001003006002002003001004004000500200600100700200080011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120020172018201920202017201820192020201820192020202120222023202120222023202120222023亚洲甲苯歧化利润亚洲歧化-调油二甲苯美国-韩国100060050050040080040030030020060010020040010001000200200100300020011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120020172018201920202017201820192020201820192020202120222023202120222023202120222023GALAXYFUTURES822PTA-价格GALAXYFUTURES922PTA-价差PTA印度-中国PTA-PX现货加工费2503000200250015020001001500501000050050010011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112150020172018201920202017201820192020202120222023202120222023GALAXYFUTURES1022PTA-利润PTA-原油现货利润PTA-石脑油现货利润50005000400040003000300020002000100010000010001000200011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120172018201920202017201820192020202120222023202120222023PTA-PX理论利润2500200015001000500050010001121314151617181911011111212017201820192020202120222023GALAXYFUTURES1123MEG-价格GALAXYFUTURES1223MEG-现货价格GALAXYFUTURES1323MEG-上游价格无烟煤3000250020001500100050001121314151617181911011111212017201820192020202120222023甲醇江苏出罐价乙烯东北亚4500160040001400350012003000100025008002000600150010004005002000011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120172018201920202017201820192020202120222023202120222023GALAXYFUTURES1423MEG-价差GALAXYFUTURES1523MEG-价差MEG内外盘价差1200100080060040020002004006001121314151617181911011111212017201820192020202120222023EO-125EGMEG华东-华南500020004000150030001000200050010000050010001000200011213141516171819110111112120172018201920202017201820192020202120222023202120222023GALAXYFUTURES1623MEG-价差MEG东北亚-东南亚200150100500501001502001121314151617181911011111212017201820192020202120222023MEG中国-西北欧MEG中国-美国3002002001001000010010020030020040030050060040011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120172018201920202017201820192020202120222023202120222023GALAXYFUTURES1723MEG-利润MEG油制利润MTO制MEG利润8000300060002000400010002000001000200020004000300011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120172018201920202017201820192020202120222023202120222023MEG乙烯单体制利润MEG煤制利润内蒙古500020001500400010003000500200001000500010001000150020002000300025004000300011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120172018201920202017201820192020202120222023202120222023GALAXYFUTURES1824PF-价差GALAXYFUTURES19