11日工业硅震荡走弱，主力2308收于14965元/吨，日内跌幅0.43%，持仓量减仓152手至68790手。百川硅参考价16085元/吨，较昨日下跌35元/吨。其中#553各地价格下调至区间15300-16050元/吨，#421价格下调至区间16500-17600元/吨。硅价企稳后继续下跌，西南硅厂成本倒挂局面愈发严重，终端需求持续低迷，下游在高库存状态下接货无力，需求面不存在明显利多因素推动，目前西北地区仍有利润空间释放产能，西南硅厂自发性停产规模扩张收效甚微，观望丰水期电价是否存在下调空间再行后续复产决定，后续形成有效扰动仍需等待政策端的施压。近期硅看涨无门，或延续弱稳运行。

研究报告全文：工业硅日报工业硅日报2023年4月12日一研究观点点评11日工业硅震荡走弱主力2308收于14965元吨日内跌幅043持仓量减仓152手至68790手百川硅参考价16085元吨较昨日下跌35元吨其中553各地价格下调至区间15300-16050元吨421价格下调至区间16500-17600元吨硅价企稳后继续下跌西南硅厂成本倒挂局面愈发严重终端需求持续低迷下游在高库存状态下接货无力需求面不存在明显利多因素推动目前西北地区仍有利润空间释放产能西南硅厂自发性停产规模扩张收效甚微观望丰水期电价是否存在下调空间再行后续复产决定后续形成有效扰动仍需等待政策端的施压近期硅看涨无门或延续弱稳运行请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES1工业硅日报二日度数据监测硅20234112023410涨跌SI00GFE149651493035期货结算价元吨SI01GFE149351490035不通氧553硅华东1555015650-100不通氧553硅黄埔港1535015450-100不通氧553现货价格不通氧553硅天津港1540015500-100元吨不通氧553硅昆明1565015750-100不通氧553硅四川1530015450-150不通氧553硅上海1600016100-100通氧553硅华东1570015800-100通氧553现货价格元通氧553硅黄埔港1580015900-100吨通氧553硅天津港1565015750-100通氧553硅昆明1605016150-100421硅华东1685017000-150421硅有机硅用华东17600176000421硅黄埔港1710017200-100421现货价格元421硅天津港1720017300-100吨421硅昆明1650016650-150421硅有机硅用昆明1760017650-50421硅四川1715017200-50现货553与421价差120012000按广期所421升水2000元吨的价差设定当前最低交割品价格1450014650-150市场现货升贴水-465-280-185行情上游硅石湖北5805800硅石云南6706700原材料元吨硅石江西5105100硅煤新疆220022000硅煤宁夏215021500新疆综合0340340电价元度四川凉山0500500云南德宏0640640下游DMC华东市场15500155000DMC东岳有机硅15500155000DMC合盛硅业15500155000有机硅元吨生胶16000160000107胶16000160000二甲基硅油18500185000复投料单晶用2080002080000多晶硅元吨致密料单晶用2040002040000菜花料单晶用1930001930000硅片元片单晶M6市场参考价08508500电池片元瓦通威单晶perc单双面1587510210200光伏组件元瓦单晶perc310W17217200本周上周涨跌黄埔港40000400000工业硅吨天津港29000290000社会昆明港46000460000库存厂库113810114550-740DMC吨厂库6200066700-4700多晶硅吨厂库667005030016400资料来源SMM百川盈孚iFindGFE光大期货研究所请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES2工业硅日报三图表分析31工业硅及成本端价格图表1工业硅各牌号价格元吨图表2牌号价差单位元吨金属硅553昆明港金属硅553通氧昆明港金属硅421昆明港通氧553-不通氧553421-553700004000060000300005000040000200003000010000200000100000202072202117202123202132202197202258202264202271202316202322-1000020233120207292020825202092120213292021425202152220216182021715202181120211042022120202221620223152022411202272820228242022920202332820201018202011142020121120211031202111272021122420221017202211132022121020205220209420211720212120216620217120223820224220228520231220205272020621202071620208102020929202122620213232021417202151220217262021820202191420211092021113202211720222112022427202252220226162022711202283020229242022128202312720232212023318-2000020201024202011182020121320211128202112232022101920221113图表3地域价差单位元吨图表4用电价格元度553硅天津港-昆明港421硅天津港-昆明港用电价新疆用电价云南德宏用电价四川凉山200000715000061000005500004003-5000-1000002-1500001-200000202072202148202156202163202171202247202255202262202329202339202212202227202233202248202252202267202271202286202319202322202073020208272020924202111420212112021311202172920218262021923202211320222102022310202263020227282022825202292220231122022114202212620222192022315202232720224202022514202252620226192022713202272520228182022830202291120229232022105202212420231212023214202322620233102023322202010222020111920201217202110212021111820211216202210202022111720221215202210172022102920221110202211222022121620221228图表5硅石价格元吨图表6精煤价格元吨硅石湖北硅石云南硅石江西硅煤宁夏硅煤新疆硅煤陕西硅煤贵州800400070035006003000500250040020003001500200100010050000202072202214202222202233202241202182202219202251202262202285202296202331202193202274202073120208292021219202132020215172021615202171420219102021109202111720224302022529202272620228242022922202311620233152020927202112120214182021812202112620226272023214202181820211052021128202212520222262022314202241520226182022720202292220221192023213202191920211162022210202233020225172022821202210820231122023128202331720201026202011242020122320221119202212182022102120211021202111222022102420221227202211252022121120211224资料来源百川盈孚光大期货研究所请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES3工业硅日报32下游产成品价格图表7DMC价格元吨图表8有机硅产成品价格元吨DMC市场均价DMC合盛硅业浙江有机硅生胶市场均价有机硅107胶市场均价有机硅二甲基硅油市场均价70000700006000060000500005000040000400003000030000200002000010000100000020221520225520228920229220207220212320216320219720211720225520227720229820232220207220209320214120216320218520223320221292022222202231820224112022529202262220227162022926202212720231242023217202331320207262020819202091220201062021110202122720213232021416202151020216272021721202181420211012020813202092420211282021311202142220215132021624202182620211072021129202212020222102022324202252620228182020723202011520212182021715202191620224142022616202272820229292022121202311220232232023316202111182021121220221020202211132022123120201030202011232020121720211025202010152020112620221020202212222021102820211118202112302022111020201217图表9多晶硅价格元吨图表10硅片价格美元片元片多晶硅复投料单晶用多晶硅致密料单晶用多晶硅菜花料单晶用硅片多晶166mm175m欧洲硅片单晶166mm175m欧洲硅片单晶M6市场参考价350000873000006250000520000041500003100000250000100202192202231202329202181202318202327202339202191720211022021111202112120221152022130202221420223162022331202241520224302022515202253020226142022629202271420227292022813202282820229122022927202311020231252023224202331120233262021816202183120219152021930202211320221282022212202222720223142022329202241320224282022513202252820226122022627202271220227272022811202282620229102022925202211920221292023123202322220233242021101720211116202112162021123120221012202210272022111120221126202212112022122620211015202110302021111420211129202112142021122920221010202210252022112420221224图表11电池片价格元瓦图表12组件价格元瓦电池片单晶perc单双面15875通威股份电池片多晶金刚线15675156通威股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