研究报告全文：股票研陈思超CompanyTableTitleReportChinaFoods00506HKAndyChen究85225092665EquityResearch公司报告中国食品00506HKandychengtjascomhk31March20232022TableSResultsummaryinLineContinuetoFocusonHighValue-AddedProductSalesMaintainBuy2022年业绩符合预期持续发力高附加值产品销售维持买入公MaintainratingasBuywithTPatHK365WeforecastChinaFoodstheCompany2023-2025netprofittobeRMB720mnRMB818mnRMB902mnRatingTableRankBuy司at3-yearCAGRof11from2022to2025WeinsistthattheCompanyssalesMaintained报growthishighlyvisiblebasedonacceleratedinnovationandahigherdegreeofoperatingleverageWealsolikeitsorganizationalcompetitivenesswhichisthe评级买入维持告cornerstoneofthelong-termgrowthstoryOurnewTPofHK365isbasedonCompanyReport125x2023FPER6TablePrice-18mTP目标价HK3652022resultsinlineChinaFoodsrevenuegrew60YoYtoRMB20968mnRevisedfrom原目标价HK360in202204lowerthanourpreviousforecastintheCompanyReportthatwepublishedon2September2022YoYchangeinsalesvolumeASPwasnearlySharePrice股价HK2930-29Revenuefromsparklingdrinksandjuicesgrew55186YoYtoRMB15875mnRMB3002mnwhilerevenuefrombottledwaterfell106YoYtoRMB1328mnDespitecontinuouscostpressureChinaFoodsgrossStockPerformancemarginimproved01pptYoYto358in2022drivenbyhigherASPandmore股价表现effectivecostmanagementeglockingininputpricehigherutilizationratesTableQuotePicSDexpensesratiofell07pptYoYto264OverallcoreEBITandshareholders200ofreturnprofitreachedRMB1588mnandRMB660mnup136YoYand153YoY100证in202229and11lowerthanourpreviousforecast00券Product告innovationandpackagingstructureimprovementremainsessentialforexpandinghighvalue-addedsalesinthecompetitive100研environment报ForthebeveragemarketinChinaitwonttakelongtogofromheadwindtotailwindduetoongoingmobilityrecoverywithmoreoutdoor200究究activitiespostthereopeningofthedomesticeconomyTheCompanywillbe报ResearchReport300among研themainFBbeneficiariesgivenitsuniquedistributionmodelieverywidemarketingnetworkcoveragewithcontrollablebusinesscontributionof告40090券OntheotherhandwethinkthatthemarketmayremainquitecompetitiveMar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23EquitywithmoreactiveinvestmentsandnewentrantsWeareoptimisticaboutChinaHSIIndexChinaFoods证FoodsmarketshareconsolidationduetomoreeffortsonnewproductdevelopmentTablandpackagingstructureupgradeTheCompanyssuccessfulnewproducteInflaunchesduring2022primarilyincludeCoca-ColaPeachCokeStar-LightChangeTablePriceChangeinSharePrice1M3M1YCoca-ColaStrawberryWhiteChocolateandWaxberryWhiteWineflavored股价变动1个月3个月1年o1AHHAsparklingwatersugar-freeSpriteandMinuteMaidsparklingjuice食Abs584681seriesMeanwhiletheAPthemeforCoca-ColaandSpriteserieshasbecome绝对变动品moredistinguishabletheformerwillleadsportssponsorshipsandthelatterReltoHSIndex2715154饮willconcentrateonmusicalmarketing相对恒指变动料ExpectinggrossmargintoremainstableMostFBcompanieswillseereliefAvgSharePriceHK292287260平均股价港元oncostpressurein2023duetolowercommoditypricesHoweverbasedon行SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational业themanagementsguidanceChinaFoodsgrossmarginismorelikelytostayflatHigherprocurementpricesofsugarsyrupsmayoffsetthepositiveimpactfrompricehikesandimprovedsalesmixBottle-gradePETresinpricehasalsoFoodBeverageSectorfluctuatedwithinarangeatrelativelyhighlevelsMajorriskfactorsunexpectedpricemovementinrawmaterialsorpackagingcomponentsintensifiedmarketcompetitionunfavorableweatherconditionsTablePrTabYearEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROE年结ofit收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率leI1231RMBmRMBmRMBxRMBxRMBnfo22021A1978457202051521171844130125521132022A209686600236151114197314013349124中2023F2253172002579199206412016765128中外2024F240228180292136872166120190741382025F25358902032210380227911021081145国运食总股数大股东输TableBaseDataSharesinIssuemm27972MajorShareholderCOFCO741品MarketCapHKm市值HKm81959FreeFloat自由流通比率2593-MonthAverageVol3个月平均成交股数0005947FY23NetGearingFY23净负债股东资金NetCash52WeeksHighLowHK52周高低HK30801970FY23EstNAVHKFY23每股估值港元42ChinaFoods00506HKChina00506FoodsSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of4TablePageHeaderChinaFoods00506HKFigure-1ExpectingChinaFoodstotalrevenuetogrowFigure-2ExpectingChinaFoodsprofitabilitytosteadilyat3-yearCAGRof65from2022Ato2025Fgrowfrom2022Ato2025F1raMthgiRelbaTRMBbn45396387389274035436535735835936236535536224353921373034143013182513251323211531March20231520231513121315188169179141783868294915115908077271767873781331310105911412809074969071748653018A19A20A21A22A23F24F25F1H191H201H211H2218A19A20A21F22A23F24F25F1H191H201H211H22SparklingWaterJuicesOthersGrossMarginOperatingMarginNetMarginSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalFigure-3PriceofsugarsyrupsroseQoQin1Q2023Figure-4PETresinpricecurrentlyrelativelyhighRMBTonneRMBTonne2raMthgiRelbaT750012000700011000100006500900060008000550070006000500050004500400030004000013102040505101011191922100609252124302712151618182125293102072125280103090710141316232524290212181920252501152023283106------------------------------------------------------------040712040812040812040812050901050901050902061002061002061003020610020711030711030711030711030812040812050902061002061003------------------------------------------------------------20132013201320142014201420152015201520162016201620172017201820182018201920192019202020202020202120212021202220222022202320132013201320142014201420152015201520162016201620172017201720182018201820192019201920202020202120212021202220222022202300506HKSourceChoiceGuotaiJunanInternationalSourceChoiceGuotaiJunanInternationalTable-1Peerscomparison中国食品MarketROEGPMOPMSharePERxPBRxDYCompanyTickerCapPriceHKmn23F24F25F23F23F23F23F23FChinaFoodsHongKongListedBeverageCompaniesNongfuSpring09633HKHKD4515050777847140233114415344585309BudweiserBrewingAPAC01876HKHKD239503171793493022673513103526218TsingtaoBrewery00168HKHKD857001538662542221893720152362146ChinaResourcesBeer00291HKHKD630002043833292712296012183417175ChinaMengniuDairy02319HKHKD32200127269171147131241714536765TingyiMasterKong00322HKHKD1308073695177147128467126630467Want-WantChina00151HKHKD5050600051231161123062247455222Uni-PresidentChina00220HKHKD792034209174157131226312431370Vitasoy00345HKHKD152001627857835338045027948451ChinaFoods00506HKHKD293081969888na123912935876YantaiNorthAndreJuice02218HKHKD65206708nanananananananaSimpleAverage2732212114531177417140WeightedAverage3432912487521218481209ReportSourceBloombergCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of4TablePageHeaderChinaFoods00506HKFinancialStatementsandRatiosTableIncomeStatementTableBalanceSheet1raMthgiRelbaTIncomeStatementBalanceSheetYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FTotalrevenue1978420968225312402225358PPE50615235542256485806Costofsales1272413470144421532616103Right-of-useassets602564550537524Goodwillandotherintangibles35303532353235323532Grossprofit70617498808986969256Others1126116512561353145731March2023SDexpenses53565539594862946619Totalnon-currentassets1031910497107611107011319Administrativeexpenses496506541577609Otherincomeexpenses-net189135147161163Cashcashequivalents15921037115116642207Inventories19331888226722682497Operatingprofit13981588174719872192Accountsreceivables328360405411451Financecosts44666Otherreceivablesprepayments489856650692711ShareofGLfromassociates2930303234Others508425468491515Totalcurrentassets48494566494255266381Profitbeforetax14231614177120132220Totalassets1516815063157031659617700Incometax348404435495546Accountspayables475690640721779Profitaftertax10751210133615171673Otherpayablesandaccruals409736363724383441072raMthgiRelbaTNon-controllinginterest502551616700772Contractliabilities1581987106611731290Shareholdersprofitloss572660720818902Others316550594643696Totalcurrentliabilities64685863602363706871BasicEPSRMB02050236025702920322Others310337362391424Totalnon-currentliabilities310337362391424TableCashFlowStatementCashFlowStatementTotalliabilities67796201638567627296Yearend31DecRMBm2021A2022F2023F2024F2025FSharecapital293293293293293OperatingactivitiesReserves48645227547957656081PBT14231614177120132220Totalshareholdersequity51575520577260586374DDA600595627688755Minorityinterest32323342354537764031Workingcapitalchanges50487789284186Totalequity83898862931798341040500506HKOthers8826848688Cashgeneratedfromoperations14311306222428983072TableFinancialRatioIncometaxandinterestpaid357361442493531FinancialRatios中国食品Cashfromoperatingactivities10749451782240525422021A2022A2023F2024F2025FInvestingactivitiesRevenuegrowth14760756656PurchaseofPPE714700800900900Grossprofitgrowth3462797564ChinaFoodsOthers133391173AdjustedEBITgrowth125136100137103Cashfrominvestingactivities847739789893897Netprofitgrowth14815391136103FinancingactivitiesGrossmargin357358359362365Loanschanges6620111AdjustedEBITmargin7176788386Dividendspaid249372468532586Netmargin2931323436Others181369413469517ROE113124127138145Cashfromfinancingactivities4967608799991102ROA3844475153Netchangesincash269554113513543Cashconversioncycle453420419440432EffectofFXratechanges00000Currentratiox0708080909Cashatbeginningofyear18601592103711511664Quickratiox0505040506Cashatendofyear15921037115116642207NetgearingNCNCNCNCNCPayoutratio749638650650650SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of4TablePageHeaderChinaFoods00506HKCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to531March2023orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance52raMthgiRelbaTorthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months00506HK5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanies中国食品DISCLAIMERChinaFoodsThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongReportTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of4