【基本面信息】
　　橡胶：截至2023年3月25日，上期所天然橡胶库存197058（473）吨，仓单188040（-340）吨。20号胶库存42918（1701）吨，仓单33355（908）吨。交易所+青岛库存104.57(1.87)万吨。
　　甲醇：库存方面，港口库存总量报71.67万吨，环比+3.82万吨。企业库存环比-1.08万吨，报36.4万吨。传统需求方面，甲醛开工回升，二甲醚开工维持，其余有所下行，总体维稳。江浙MTO开68.30%，环比+1.73%，整体甲醇制烯烃开工80.51%，环比+1.46%。
　　 PVC：上周PVC整体开工负荷率77.14%，环比下降1.9个百分点；其中电石法PVC开工负荷率74.76%，环比下降2.61个百分点；乙烯法PVC开工负荷率85.3%，环比增加0.52个百分点。

研究报告全文：能源化工期权日报期权研究2023年3月30日星期四基本面信息橡胶截至2023年3月25日上期所天然橡胶库存197058473吨仓单188040-340吨20号胶库存429181701吨仓单33355908吨交易所青岛库存10457187万吨甲醇库存方面港口库存总量报7167万吨环比382万吨企业库存环比-108万吨报364万吨传统需求方面甲醛开工回升二甲醚开工维持其余有所下行总体维稳江浙MTO开6830环比173整体甲醇制烯烃开工8051环比146卢品先PVC上周PVC整体开工负荷率7714环比下降19个百分点其中电石法PVC开工负荷率7476环比下降261个百分点乙烯法PVC开工负荷率853环比增加052个百分点投研经理0755-23375252期权分析及策略建议lupxwkjyqhcom1橡胶期权橡胶RU2305经过前期两周的持续大幅下跌跌破延续一个多月以来震荡区间下限上周以来低位弱势区间从业资格号盘整有所反弹回升涨幅025报收于11905期权隐含波动率上升139报收于2503持仓量PCR较低位置窄幅盘F3047321整报收于036操作建议沪胶经过前两周以来持续大幅下跌后上周维持低位弱势震荡有所反弹回暖而趋势线交易咨询号方向仍向下橡胶期权隐含波动率小幅盘整持仓量PCR维持在较低水平构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略Z0015541获取方向性收益和时间价值收益若市场行情急速反弹大涨则逐渐平仓离场如RU2305期权SRU2305P1150010SRU2305P1175010和SRU2305C1225010SRU2305C12000102甲醇期权甲醇MA305延续三周以来的弱势空头震荡下行趋势且趋势线方向仍向下涨幅048报收于2489期权隐含波动率下降140报收于2309持仓量PCR有所反弹维持较低水平报收于061操作建议甲醇延续近三周以来的弱势偏空头震荡下行形成上方有压力的弱势偏空头趋势甲醇期权隐含波动率小幅波动持仓量PCR维持至较低水平构建卖出偏空头的看涨看跌期权组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则逐渐平仓离场如MA305期权SMA305P242510SMA305P245010和STMA305C247510SMA305C2500103PTA期权PTATA305上周止跌反弹回暖上升后连续报收阳线突破上涨本周以来加速上行多头情绪加剧涨幅218报收于6274期权隐含波动率持续上升028报收于3031持仓量PCR小幅盘整报收于096操作建议PTA上周以来延续短期多头上涨趋势突破上行市场行情多头情绪较浓PTA期权隐含波动率小幅波动持仓量PCR窄幅波动有所下降回落构建卖看涨期权牛市价差组合策略获取方向性收益若市场行情快速大跌至低行权价则逐渐平仓离场如TA305期权BTA305C600010BTA305C610010和STA305C640010STA305C6300104塑料期权塑料L2305经过前两周的震荡下行空头下跌上周以来低位弱势区间震荡跌幅026报收于8087期权隐含波动率下降172报收于1593持仓量PCR小幅盘整报收于063操作上建议塑料经过前一周持续大幅下跌后上周以来跌幅收窄低位宽幅区间盘整震荡塑料期权隐含波动率窄幅波动持仓量PCR维持较低水平构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则平仓离场如L2305期权SL2305-P-800010SL2305-P-790010和SL2305-C-800010SL2305-C-8100105聚丙烯期权聚丙烯PP2305前周以来连续报收阴线持续空头下行上周以来逐渐形成低位矩形区间震荡格局弱势偏空涨幅001报收于7611期权隐含波动率下降111报收于1612持仓量PC小幅波动报收于070操作上建议聚丙烯前一周弱势盘整震荡后逐渐下行上而后维持一周多以来空头压力线下区间震荡聚丙烯期权隐含波动率小幅盘整持仓量PCR持续下降维持至较低水平构建卖出看涨看跌期权偏空头组合策略获取方向性收益和时间价值若市场行情快速大涨至低行权价则平仓离场如PP2305期权SPP2305-P-740010SPP2305-P-750010和SPP2305-C-750010SPP2305-C-7600106PVC期权PVCV2305前一周连续大幅下跌跌破前两周的矩形区间下限上周以来低位盘整震荡后逐渐反弹回暖上升本周以来连续报收阳线逐渐转为偏多头市场行情走势跌幅006报收于6260期权隐含波动率下降055报收于2107持仓量PCR小幅盘整报收于047操作上建议PVC上方有压力的短期偏多头上涨趋势PVC期权隐含波动率小幅波动持仓量PCR维持在较低水平构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨或大跌则平仓离场如V2305期权SV2305-P-620010SV2305-P-630010和SV2305-C-630010SV2305-C-640010市场行情期权品种标的合约收盘价涨跌涨跌幅成交量万成交额亿RURU230511905003000025190422620MAMA230524890012000481398434636PTATA2305627400134002182068963514LPGPG230545400032000718157352LL2305808700-2100-02621608756PPPP2305761100100001293011150PVCV2305626000-400-006619219395数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期货合成期权期权标的合约平值期权权利金C权利金P合成价格涨跌涨跌幅升贴水剩余天数到期日RU230512000176003000011876-8300-069-2900262023-04-24MA23052500205043002478-050-002-115082023-04-06TA2305630054001680061869250152-880082023-04-06PG23054550644096004518080002-2160122023-04-10L23058100680069008099-1300-0161200122023-04-10PP23057600610063007598-1600-021-1300122023-04-10V230563004950800062703250052950122023-04-10数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部注平值是以主力月合约call与put权利金相减最小为基准平值合成期权升贴水平值call权利金-pu权利金-标的价格主力期权合约隐含波动率期权标的合约IMP-CIMP-PIMP-T变化MA20UPLOWRU2305272519822503139228224842080MA2305234222812309-140220924821936TA2305290731683031028257330982048PG2305295128412908-149281032452375L2305167015091593-172167318811466PP2305161716051612-111163918611418V2305203421792107-055201622491782数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期权合约持仓量PCR期权标的合约量-Call量-Put量-PCR变化持仓-Call持仓-Put持仓-PCR变化RU23052845812146043-0015628220231036-001MA2305153543173780113004178656109830061002TA2305392220355813091010309919298148096001PG230518204119290660171995412623063008L230520554187070910152795517496063-000PP230516435121860740003377123511070-001V230532532326601000278283239118047001数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部标的价量关系图1橡胶主力合约走势图14000成交量万6013500收盘价50130004012500301186500120002011500101100002022-11-182022-12-012023-03-162023-03-292022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-232022-11-282022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-152023-02-202023-02-232023-02-282023-03-032023-03-082023-03-132023-03-212023-03-24图2甲醇主力合约走势图2900成交量万3002800收盘价2700225260024770015025002400752300220002022-09-222023-01-302023-03-242022-09-192022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-152023-02-202023-02-232023-02-282023-03-032023-03-082023-03-132023-03-162023-03-212023-03-29图3PTA主力合约走势图6500480成交量万收盘价61880040060003205500240160500080450002022-09-272023-01-302023-03-082022-09-192022-09-222022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-152023-02-202023-02-232023-02-282023-03-032023-03-132023-03-162023-03-212023-03-242023-03-29标的价量关系图4LPG主力合约走势图600018成交量万收盘价165500141210500045190086450042400002022-12-062023-01-182023-03-082022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-152023-02-202023-02-232023-02-282023-03-032023-03-132023-03-162023-03-212023-03-242023-03-29图5塑料主力合约走势图900070成交量万收盘价608500504080008098003075002010700002022-09-222022-11-232023-01-182022-09-192022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-152023-02-202023-02-232023-02-282023-03-032023-03-082023-03-132023-03-162023-03-212023-03-242023-03-29图6PP主力合约走势图900080成交量万收盘价70850060508000407597003075002010700002022-09-222022-11-232023-01-182022-09-192022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-152023-02-202023-02-232023-02-282023-03-032023-03-082023-03-132023-03-162023-03-212023-03-242023-03-29图8PVC主力合约走势图7200160收盘价收盘价14067001201006200806057006265004020520002022-10-252022-12-222022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-152023-02-202023-02-232023-02-282023-03-032023-03-082023-03-132023-03-162023-03-212023-03-242023-03-29橡胶期权持仓分布橡胶期权持仓分布图橡胶期权持仓变化图100004009000200800007000-2006000-4005000-60040003000-8002000-10001000-12000-140011750117501175015250990099001025010750112501225012750132501375014250147501525015750990010250107501125012250127501325013750142501475015750OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC橡胶期权最大未平仓橡胶认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价17000160001500014000130001200011000100002022-09-302022-10-282022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-152023-02-202023-02-232023-02-282023-03-032023-03-082023-03-132023-03-162023-03-212023-03-242023-03-29橡胶期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓橡胶期权持仓量PCR橡胶期权隐含波动率08014000OIPCR30CLOSE070135002826060130002405011865001250022035952004012000180301150016020110002022-12-092022-09-192022-09-272022-10-122022-10-202022-10-282022-11-072022-11-152022-11-232022-12-012022-12-192022-12-272023-01-052023-01-132023-01-302023-02-072023-02-152023-02-232023-03-032023-03-132023-03-212023-03-292023-03-212022-09-292022-10-182022-10-282022-11-092022-11-212022-12-012022-12-132022-12-232023-01-052023-01-172023-02-032023-02-152023-02-272023-03-092022-09-19IMPVMA20UPLOW甲醇期权持仓分布甲醇期权持仓分布图甲醇期权持仓变化图3000050004000250003000200002000150001000010000-10005000-20000-3000310032002150220022502300235024002450250026002700280029003000OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC甲醇期权最大未平仓甲醇认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价32003000280026002400220020002022-10-282022-12-142023-02-232022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-152023-02-202023-02-282023-03-032023-03-082023-03-132023-03-162023-03-212023-03-242023-03-29甲醇期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓甲醇期权持仓量PCR甲醇期权隐含波动率2002900OIPCR50CLOSE280016040270012030260008020250004024001024770000023002022-10-282022-12-272023-03-032022-09-192022-09-272022-10-122022-10-202022-11-072022-11-152022-11-232022-12-012022-12-092022-12-192023-01-052023-01-132023-01-302023-02-072023-02-152023-02-232023-03-132023-03-212023-03-292023-03-212022-09-292022-10-182022-10-282022-11-092022-11-212022-12-012022-12-132022-12-232023-01-052023-01-172023-02-032023-02-152023-02-272023-03-092022-09-19IMPVMA20UPLOWPTA期权持仓分布PTA期权持仓分布图PTA期权持仓变化图60000100008000500006000400004000200030000020000-2000-400010000-60000-800050005000680046004600470048004900520054005600580060006200640066007000720074007600460047004800490050005200540056005800600062006400660068007000720074007600OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGECPTA期权最大未平仓PTA认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价8000750070006500600055005000450040002022202320222022202220222022202220222022202220222022202220222022202220222022202220222022202220222022202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023-------------------------------------------12030909090910101010101111111111111112121212121212010101010102020202020202030303030303-------------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