我们维持兴发铝业（“公司”）“买入”的投资评级，目标价11.73港元。我们的目标价相当于2.4倍2023年市盈率和1.9倍2024年市盈率。我们预计新能源汽车用铝型材的销量在2023年将保持快速增长并贡献更多的利润。
　　我们预计新能源汽车用铝型材的销售在2023年将录得快速增长。兴发铝业在2022年首次进入了新能源汽车的供应链并开拓了新能源汽车客户。公司将会继续加强工业铝型材产品的研究和开发以更好把握市场机会及抢占各细分领域的市场份额。与此同时，公司也提升了其产能，佛山三水精密制造基地在2022年全面投产。我们预计新能源汽车用铝挤压材将极大受益于新能源汽车产业的快速发展并成为公司未来三年主要的增长来源。
　　2022年公司净利润的下滑是暂时的，公司在铝挤压行业的竞争优势仍然十分显著。2022年公司净利润的下滑主要是由于应收账款减值损失，公司经营保持稳定。在国内房地产市场面临巨大挑战时公司的铝型材总销量和总收入仍然录得了增长，充分显示出了公司的竞争优势。我们认为公司的发展前景依旧良好。
　　催化剂：新能源汽车销量的快速增长；国内房地产市场的复苏。
　　风险因素：车用铝挤压材的开发不及预期；其它铝挤压生产企业的激烈竞争；国内房地产市场持续疲软

研究报告全文：股票研究TableTitleFlashNoteXingfaAluminium00098HKKevinGuo郭勇EquityResearch8675523976671快讯兴发铝业00098HKyongguogtjascomhk20March2023TableSummaryGrowthProspectsRemainGood发展前景依旧良好快WemaintaintheinvestmentratingofXingfaAluminumtheCompanyasBuywithTPofHK1173讯OurTPrepresents24x2023PERand19x2024PERWeexpectsalesofaluminumextrusionproductsfornewenergyvehiclestomaintainfastgrowthandcontributemoreprofitin2023FlashNoteWeexpectsalesofaluminumextrusionproductsfornewenergyvehiclestorecordfastgrowthin2023In2022XingfaAluminumenteredintothesupplychainofnewenergyvehiclesNEVforthefirsttimeacquiringNEVcustomersTheCompanywillkeepstrengtheningtheresearchanddevelopmentofindustrialaluminumprofilesinordertobettergraspmarketopportunitiesandseizemarketshareinvarioussegmentsAtthesametimetheCompanyalsoincreaseditsproductioncapacityandFoshanSanshuiPrecisionManufacturingBasewasfullyputintooperationin2022WeexpectsalesofaluminumextrusionproductsfornewenergyvehiclestobenefitgreatlyfromthefastdevelopmentofthenewenergyvehicleindustryandexpectittobethemainsourceofgrowthfortheCompanyinthenext3years证Thedeclineinnetprofitin2022wastemporarytheCompanystillholdsgreatcompetitiveadvantagesinthealuminumextrusionsectorThedeclineinnetprofitin2022wasmainlyattributabletoimpairmentlosson券tradeandotherreceivablestheoperationoftheCompanyremainedstableTotalsalesofaluminumextrusion研productsandtotalrevenueoftheCompanystillrecordedgrowthwhilethedomesticpropertysectorwas告究confrontedwithgreatchallengeswhichfullyreflectedthecompetitiveadvantagesoftheCompanyWebelieve报报thegrowthprospectsoftheCompanyremaingood告究CatalystFastsalesgrowthofnewenergyvehiclesrecoveryofdomesticpropertymarketEquityResearchReport研RisksDevelopmentofaluminumextrusionproductsforvehiclesmaymissexpectationfiercecompetitionfromTab券otheraluminumextrusionproducersdomesticpropertymarketmayremainweakleI证有nfo1我们维持兴发铝业公司买入的投资评级目标价1173港元我们的目标价相当于24倍2023年市盈率和19倍2024年市盈率我们预计新能源汽车用铝型材的销量在2023年将保持快速增长并贡献更多的利润色金我们预计新能源汽车用铝型材的销售在2023年将录得快速增长兴发铝业在2022年首次进入了新能源汽车的供应链并开拓了属新能源汽车客户公司将会继续加强工业铝型材产品的研究和开发以更好把握市场机会及抢占各细分领域的市场份额与此同时行公司也提升了其产能佛山三水精密制造基地在2022年全面投产我们预计新能源汽车用铝挤压材将极大受益于新能源汽车产业业的快速发展并成为公司未来三年主要的增长来源NonferrousSectorMetals2022年公司净利润的下滑是暂时的公司在铝挤压行业的竞争优势仍然十分显著2022年公司净利润的下滑主要是由于应收账款减值损失公司经营保持稳定在国内房地产市场面临巨大挑战时公司的铝型材总销量和总收入仍然录得了增长充分显示出了公司的竞争优势我们认为公司的发展前景依旧良好催化剂新能源汽车销量的快速增长国内房地产市场的复苏TableI风险因素车用铝挤压材的开发不及预期其它铝挤压生产企业的激烈竞争国内房地产市场持续疲软nfo2中兴外发运铝输业XingfaAluminium00098XingfaHKAluminiumSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of2TablePageHeaderXingfaAluminium00098HKCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutral20March2023Reduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinition2raMthgiRelbaTOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthis00098HKResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearch兴发铝业Report6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERXingfaAluminiumThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkFlashNoteSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of2