中泰期货-油脂油料周报：月度供需报告影响中性，宏观走弱施压盘面走势-230312

>> 中泰期货-油脂油料周报：月度供需报告影响中性，宏观走弱施压盘面走势-230312

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研究报告全文：交易咨询资格号证监许可2012112月度供需报告影响中性宏观走弱施压盘面走势中泰期货油脂油料周报2023年3月12日姓名史恒昱从业资格号F3053587投资咨询证书号Z0014323联系人巩力赫从业资格号F3075630投资咨询证书号Z0018003联系电话0531-81678626公司地址济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦1516层客服电话400-618-6767公司网址wwwztqhcom目录1上周行情回顾2国外现货市场供需3国内现货市场供需4供需平衡表5花生市场专题6天气回顾与预测1上周外盘合约走势1阿根廷大豆状况监测1国内油脂库存1全球油籽平衡表1花生期货基差1美国上周降水2CFTC总持仓2美豆出口进度2豆粕库存未执行合同2全球油脂平衡表2花生现货价格2美国降水预测3CFTC净持仓3美豆压榨利润3大豆到港库存3大豆平衡表3油厂花生库存榨利3巴西阿根廷上周降水4上周内盘合约走势4美豆油库存豆粕出口4大豆开机率压榨量4花生油VS豆油4巴西阿根廷降水预测5内盘合约基差5马来棕榈油产量5国内豆粕豆油消费5花生粕VS豆粕5马来印尼上周降水6内外盘油粕比库存出口6生猪养殖利润饲料产量6花生花生油进口6马来印尼降水预测7内盘合约月间价差6加拿大菜籽压榨产量7花生出口7中国上周气温降水8内盘合约跨品种价差8中期天气预报9内盘合约持仓2本期要点行情要点宏观美联储主席鲍威尔上周二称央行可能需要超预期的加息以应维持不变并提高了巴西和美国大豆的出口预期以弥补阿根廷缺口对近期强劲的数据令大宗商品市场承压至上周五非农就业数据公布3月供需报告对美豆带来了短暂提振尽管如此谷物市场下跌对美后市场认为美联储更可能加息25基点而不是50基点但硅谷银行豆带来外溢效应周度出口销售数据不及预期也对价格施压国内暴雷事件若风险外溢可能改变美联储利率路径关注美国下周二公豆粕现货市场仍较为疲弱成交较上周略有好转但整体依然清淡布的CPI数据短期油厂开机率下降市场呈现供需两弱格局预计3月下旬开始进口大豆陆续到港油厂开机或恢复高位届时豆粕仍面临累库压力油脂宏观外围市场情绪走弱加速内盘油脂下跌其中由于国内菜继续关注需求端表现及累库节奏油库存不断上涨外加市场预计3月国内进口菜籽大量到港菜油在观点与建议油脂中长期跟随宏观震荡关注下周二美国CPI数据供给改善预期中领跌油脂MPOB报告显示受季节性洪水影响2月风险点美联储超预期加息进口大豆到港异常马棕产量为1251万吨降至一年低点不过整体处于预估区间之内出口下滑199至1114万吨接近市场预期2月末库存环比减少656至212万吨低于市场预期整体来看2月报告较预期稍显偏多但产量及出口与预期偏差不大且库存仍处较高水平对盘面利多冲击有限豆粕USDA将阿根廷20222023年度大豆产量预期从2月的4100万吨下调至3300万吨超过市场预期的3665万吨对巴西153亿吨产量预3上周行情回顾1上周外盘合约走势2CFTC总持仓3CFTC净持仓4上周内盘合约走势5内盘合约基差6内外盘油粕比7内盘合约月间价差8内盘合约跨品种价差9内盘合约持仓4上周外盘合约走势CBOT大豆CBOT豆油CBOT豆粕160080510155075490磅470短吨蒲式耳150070450145065430单位美分单位美元410单位美分14006039013505537011-0611-1111-1611-2111-2612-0112-0612-1112-1612-2112-2612-3101-0501-1001-1501-2001-2501-3002-0402-0902-1402-1902-2403-0103-0611-0611-1111-1611-2111-2612-0112-0612-1112-1612-2112-2612-3101-0501-1001-1501-2001-2501-3002-0402-0902-1402-1902-2403-0103-0611-0611-1111-1611-2111-2612-0112-0612-1112-1612-2112-2612-3101-0501-1001-1501-2001-2501-3002-0402-0902-1402-1902-2403-0103-06布伦特原油CBOT玉米BMD毛棕榈油1057204700100700450095桶吨680430090蒲式耳660410085640单位美元80单位令吉3900单位美分62037007570600350011-0611-1111-2612-1112-1612-3101-0501-2002-0402-0902-2403-0111-1611-2112-0112-0612-2112-2601-1001-1501-2501-3002-1402-1903-0611-0611-1111-1611-2111-2612-0112-0612-1112-1612-2112-2612-3101-0501-1001-1501-2001-2501-3002-0402-0902-1402-1902-2403-0103-0611-0611-1111-1611-2111-2612-0112-0612-1112-1612-2112-2612-3101-0501-1001-1501-2001-2501-3002-0402-0902-1402-1902-2403-0103-065数据来源iFinD中泰期货研究所整理CFTC总持仓CBOT大豆CBOT豆油140000070000012000006000001000000500000800000400000600000300000单位手单位手4000002000002000001000000019011903190519071909191120012003200520072009201121012103210521072109211122012203220522072209221123011901190319051907190919112001200320052007200920112101210321052107210921112201220322052207220922112301美元指数10年美国国债期货70000600000060000500000050000400000040000300000030000单位手单位手20000002000010000001000000190319092003200921012103210922012203220923011901190519071911200120052007201121052107211122052207221119031905190721032105220322052207190119091911200120032005200720092011210121072109211122012209221123016数据来源CFTC中泰期货研究所整理CFTC净持仓CBOT大豆CBOT豆油40000020000020000010000000-200000-100000单位手单位手-400000-200000-600000-30000019011903190519071909191120012003200520072009201121012103210521072109211122012203220522072209221123011901190319051907190919112001200320052007200920112101210321052107210921112201220322052207220922112301管理基金净持仓商业净持仓管理基金净持仓商业净持仓美元指数管理基金净持仓10年美国国债期货管理基金净持仓350001500000300001250000250001000000200007500001500050000010000单位手单位手250000500000-5000-250000-10000-500000190319092003200520092105210921112205221119011905190719112001200720112101210321072201220322072209230119071909200720092109211122012203221123011901190319051911200120032005201121012103210521072205220722097数据来源CFTC中泰期货研究所整理上周内盘合约走势豆油05棕榈油05菜油0594009000110008800920086001070090008400吨吨吨880082001040080008600780010100单位元单位元84007600单位元740098008200720080007000950011-0611-1111-1611-2111-2612-0112-0612-1112-1612-2112-2612-3101-0501-1001-1501-2001-2501-3002-0402-0902-1402-1902-2403-0103-0611-0611-1111-1611-2111-2612-0112-0612-1112-1612-2112-2612-3101-0501-1001-1501-2001-2501-3002-0402-0902-1402-1902-2403-0103-0611-0611-1111-1611-2111-2612-0112-0612-1112-1612-2112-2612-3101-0501-1001-1501-2001-2501-3002-0402-0902-1402-1902-2403-0103-06豆粕05菜粕05花生044100340012000400033001140039003200吨吨吨38003100108003700300010200单位元单位元3600单位元290096003500280034002700900011-0611-1111-1611-2111-2612-0112-0612-1112-1612-2112-2612-3101-0501-1001-1501-2001-2501-3002-0402-0902-1402-1902-2403-0103-0611-0611-1611-2612-0612-2112-3101-1001-2001-3002-0902-2403-0611-1111-2112-0112-1112-1612-2601-0501-1501-2502-0402-1402-1903-0111-0611-1111-1611-2111-2612-0112-0612-1112-1612-2112-2612-3101-0501-1001-1501-2001-2501-3002-0402-0902-1402-1902-2403-0103-068数据来源iFinD中泰期货研究所整理内盘合约基差12张家港豆油05基差广东棕榈油05基差防城港菜油05基差30006000500040002000吨吨4000吨30001000200020001000单位元单位元0单位元00-1000-1000-200005-1506-0406-2407-1408-0308-2309-1210-0210-2211-1112-0112-2101-1001-3002-1903-1103-3104-2005-1005-1506-0406-2407-1408-0308-2309-1210-0210-2211-1112-0112-2101-1001-3002-1903-1103-3104-2005-1005-1506-0406-2407-1408-0308-2309-1210-0210-2211-1112-0112-2101-1001-3002-1903-1103-3104-2005-10180519052005210522052305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