行情要点：
　　宏观：美国服务业2月份数据稳步增长，新订单和就业人数升至逾一年高位，表明第一季度经济继续扩张，经济增长数据提振市场风险偏好致美元回落。上周五有消息称阿联酋正在就退出OPEC+进行内部辩论，市场担心这可能会影响相关减产协议，油价一度大幅下跌；随后这一传言受到争议，消息人士称媒体报道与事实相去甚远，油价出现逆转并大幅上涨。
　　油脂：上周内盘油脂先抑后扬，自周三市场情绪随国际油脂上涨有所回暖。马来洪水和过量降雨引发产量忧虑，林吉特兑美元汇率贬至三个月低位支撑马棕反弹；另外有消息称印尼计划从6月开始要求通过期货交易所出口本国毛棕榈油，出口政策或再次收紧亦对盘面带来提振。内盘油脂跟随国际油脂走高，连盘棕榈油领涨油脂。受缺豆检修影响，油厂开机率下滑令豆油库存低位再降，当前可售紧张，提货排队情况维持，不过终端随用随买为主，市场成交清淡，基差整体稳定；菜油供应宽松预期保持不变，现货基差持续走弱，重点关注需求端表现及累库节奏。
　　豆粕：美豆价格止跌回升，阿根廷天气仍然干燥，布交所上周四表示由于历史性干旱和高温的影响，将不得不再次下调大豆产量预估，市场预计USDA在3月的报告中将进一步削减阿根廷大豆产量；巴西1-2大豆出口低于此前预估，美豆现货坚挺对盘面下方带来支撑。AgRural数据显示，巴西今年大豆出口开局缓慢，1月和2月总出口同比下降31%。国内豆粕上周五随美豆上涨回升，不过现货市场疲弱延续，饲料需求不佳令下游采购提货积极性差，成交表现清淡，现货基差持续走低，关注后期进口到港、开机节奏及饲料需求情况。
　　观点与建议：油脂中长期跟随宏观震荡，关注USDA、MPOB月度供需报告。
　　风险点：南美天气异常、美联储持续加息
　　

研究报告全文：交易咨询资格号证监许可2012112国际油脂上涨提振盘面关注下周月度供需报告中泰期货油脂油料周报2023年3月5日姓名史恒昱从业资格号F3053587投资咨询证书号Z0014323联系人巩力赫从业资格号F3075630投资咨询证书号Z0018003联系电话0531-81678626公司地址济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦1516层客服电话400-618-6767公司网址wwwztqhcom目录1上周行情回顾2国外现货市场供需3国内现货市场供需4供需平衡表5花生市场专题6天气回顾与预测1上周外盘合约走势1阿根廷大豆状况监测1国内油脂库存1全球油籽平衡表1花生期货基差1美国上周降水2CFTC总持仓2美豆出口进度2豆粕库存未执行合同2全球油脂平衡表2花生现货价格2美国降水预测3CFTC净持仓3美豆压榨利润3大豆到港库存3大豆平衡表3油厂花生库存榨利3巴西阿根廷上周降水4上周内盘合约走势4美豆油库存豆粕出口4大豆开机率压榨量4花生油VS豆油4巴西阿根廷降水预测5内盘合约基差5马来棕榈油产量5国内豆粕豆油消费5花生粕VS豆粕5马来印尼上周降水6内外盘油粕比库存出口6生猪养殖利润饲料产量6花生花生油进口6马来印尼降水预测7内盘合约月间价差6加拿大菜籽压榨产量7花生出口7中国上周气温降水8内盘合约跨品种价差8中期天气预报9内盘合约持仓2本期要点行情要点宏观美国服务业2月份数据稳步增长新订单和就业人数升至逾一豆粕美豆价格止跌回升阿根廷天气仍然干燥布交所上周四表年高位表明第一季度经济继续扩张经济增长数据提振市场风险偏示由于历史性干旱和高温的影响将不得不再次下调大豆产量预估好致美元回落上周五有消息称阿联酋正在就退出OPEC进行内部辩市场预计USDA在3月的报告中将进一步削减阿根廷大豆产量巴西论市场担心这可能会影响相关减产协议油价一度大幅下跌随后1-2大豆出口低于此前预估美豆现货坚挺对盘面下方带来支撑这一传言受到争议消息人士称媒体报道与事实相去甚远油价出现AgRural数据显示巴西今年大豆出口开局缓慢1月和2月总出口同逆转并大幅上涨比下降31国内豆粕上周五随美豆上涨回升不过现货市场疲弱延续饲料需求不佳令下游采购提货积极性差成交表现清淡现货油脂上周内盘油脂先抑后扬自周三市场情绪随国际油脂上涨有所基差持续走低关注后期进口到港开机节奏及饲料需求情况回暖马来洪水和过量降雨引发产量忧虑林吉特兑美元汇率贬至三观点与建议油脂中长期跟随宏观震荡关注USDAMPOB月度供个月低位支撑马棕反弹另外有消息称印尼计划从6月开始要求通过需报告期货交易所出口本国毛棕榈油出口政策或再次收紧亦对盘面带来提风险点南美天气异常美联储持续加息振内盘油脂跟随国际油脂走高连盘棕榈油领涨油脂受缺豆检修影响油厂开机率下滑令豆油库存低位再降当前可售紧张提货排队情况维持不过终端随用随买为主市场成交清淡基差整体稳定菜油供应宽松预期保持不变现货基差持续走弱重点关注需求端表现及累库节奏3上周行情回顾1上周外盘合约走势2CFTC总持仓3CFTC净持仓4上周内盘合约走势5内盘合约基差6内外盘油粕比7内盘合约月间价差8内盘合约跨品种价差9内盘合约持仓4上周外盘合约走势CBOT大豆CBOT豆油CBOT豆粕160080510155075490磅470短吨70蒲式耳1500450145065430单位美分单位美元410单位美分14006039013505537011-0611-1111-1611-2111-2612-0112-0612-1112-1612-2112-2612-3101-0501-1001-1501-2001-2501-3002-0402-0902-1402-1902-2403-0111-0611-1111-1611-2111-2612-0112-0612-1112-1612-2112-2612-3101-0501-1001-1501-2001-2501-3002-0402-0902-1402-1902-2403-0111-0611-1111-1611-2111-2612-0112-0612-1112-1612-2112-2612-3101-0501-1001-1501-2001-2501-3002-0402-0902-1402-1902-2403-01CBOT玉米BMD毛棕榈油布伦特原油7201054700700100450095吨680桶蒲式耳430090660410085640单位令吉3900单位美元80单位美分62037007560035007011-0611-1111-1611-2111-2612-0112-0612-1112-1612-2112-2612-3101-0501-1001-1501-2001-2501-3002-0402-0902-1402-1902-2403-0111-0611-1111-1611-2111-2612-0112-0612-1112-1612-2112-2612-3101-0501-1001-1501-2001-2501-3002-0402-0902-1402-1902-2403-0111-0611-1111-1611-2111-2612-0112-0612-1112-1612-2112-2612-3101-0501-1001-1501-2001-2501-3002-0402-0902-1402-1902-2403-015数据来源iFinD中泰期货研究所整理CFTC总持仓CBOT大豆CBOT豆油140000070000012000006000001000000500000800000400000600000300000单位手单位手4000002000002000001000000019011903190519071909191120012003200520072009201121012103210521072109211122012203220522072209221123011901190319051907190919112001200320052007200920112101210321052107210921112201220322052207220922112301美元指数10年美国国债期货70000600000060000500000050000400000040000300000030000单位手单位手20000002000010000001000000190319092003200921012103210922012203220923011901190519071911200120052007201121052107211122052207221119031905190721032105220322052207190119091911200120032005200720092011210121072109211122012209221123016数据来源CFTC中泰期货研究所整理CFTC净持仓CBOT大豆CBOT豆油40000020000020000010000000-200000-100000单位手单位手-400000-200000-600000-30000019011903190519071909191120012003200520072009201121012103210521072109211122012203220522072209221123011901190319051907190919112001200320052007200920112101210321052107210921112201220322052207220922112301管理基金净持仓商业净持仓管理基金净持仓商业净持仓美元指数管理基金净持仓10年美国国债期货管理基金净持仓350001500000300001250000250001000000200007500001500050000010000单位手单位手250000500000-5000-250000-10000-500000190319092003200520092105210921112205221119011905190719112001200720112101210321072201220322072209230119071909200720092109211122012203221123011901190319051911200120032005201121012103210521072205220722097数据来源CFTC中泰期货研究所整理上周内盘合约走势豆油05棕榈油05菜油0594009000110009200880086001070090008400吨吨吨880082001040080008600780010100单位元单位元84007600单位元740082009800720080007000950011-0611-1111-1611-2111-2612-0112-0612-1112-1612-2112-2612-3101-0501-1001-1501-2001-2501-3002-0402-0902-1402-1902-2403-0111-0611-1111-1611-2111-2612-0112-0612-1112-1612-2112-2612-3101-0501-1001-1501-2001-2501-3002-0402-0902-1402-1902-2403-0111-0611-1111-1611-2111-2612-0112-0612-1112-1612-2112-2612-3101-0501-1001-1501-2001-2501-3002-0402-0902-1402-1902-2403-01豆粕05菜粕05花生044100340012000400033001140039003200吨吨吨38003100108003700300010200单位元单位元36002900单位元96003500280034002700900011-0611-1111-1611-2111-2612-0112-0612-1112-1612-2112-2612-3101-0501-1001-1501-2001-2501-3002-0402-0902-1402-1902-2403-0111-2101-1002-1411-0611-1111-1611-2612-0112-0612-1112-1612-2112-2612-3101-0501-1501-2001-2501-3002-0402-0902-1902-2403-0111-0611-1111-1611-2111-2612-0112-0612-1112-1612-2112-2612-3101-0501-1001-1501-2001-2501-3002-0402-0902-1402-1902-2403-018数据来源iFinD中泰期货研究所整理内盘合约基差12张家港豆油05基差广东棕榈油05基差防城港菜油05基差300060005000200040004000吨吨吨30001000200020001000单位元0单位元0单位元0-1000-2000-100005-1506-0406-2407-1408-0308-2309-1210-0210-2211-1112-0112-2101-1001-3002-1903-1103-3104-2005-1005-1506-0406-2407-1408-0308-2309-1210-0210-2211-1112-0112-2101-1001-3002-1903-1103-3104-2005-1005-1506-0406-2407-1408-0308-2309-1210-0210-2211-1112-0112-2101-1001-3002-1903-1103-3104-2005-1018051905200521052205230518051905200521052205230518051905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