3日双硅盘面维持窄幅震荡，收盘轻微上涨。从成本线来看，天津港锰矿阴跌为主，半碳酸下调0.6元/吨度，其余电力、冶金焦、硅石价格持稳，兰炭价格暴跌后回升至1270元/吨后持稳，硅铁利润受限，成本支撑稳定，硅锰成本线重心下移，双硅盘面紧贴成本线区间波动。目前市场主要驱动还是依赖宏观方面的情绪政策，整体情绪有消退缓和的迹象，前期的阶段性上调或进入尾声。基本面来看，双硅供应远大于需求，需求端有已过拐点反弹，但下游订单数量表现一般，期现商拿货意愿平平，基本面偏松，策略上可以多单止盈，或考虑做多硅锰-硅铁价差

研究报告全文：铁合金数据日报202336品种日内观点3日双硅盘面维持窄幅震荡收盘轻微上涨从成本线来看天津港锰矿阴跌为主半碳酸下调06元吨硅铁度其余电力冶金焦硅石价格持稳兰炭价格暴跌后回升至1270元吨后持稳硅铁利润受限成本支撑稳定硅锰成本线重心下移双硅盘面紧贴成本线区间波动目前市场主要驱动还是依赖宏观方面的情绪政策整体情绪有消退缓和的迹象前期的阶段性上调或进入尾声基本面来看双硅供应远大硅锰于需求需求端有已过拐点反弹但下游订单数量表现一般期现商拿货意愿平平基本面偏松策略上可以多单止盈或考虑做多硅锰-硅铁价差产业链数据数据环比项目数据环比宁夏硅铁现价76500硅铁2305结算价814220内蒙硅铁现价77000硅铁2309结算价804824期现货市场宁夏锰硅现价72500锰硅2305结算价750420内蒙锰硅现价73000锰硅2309结算价742216硅铁2305基差-492-20硅铁9-1价差32-2硅铁2309基差-398-24硅铁5-9价差94-4基差及价差锰硅2305基差-204-20锰硅9-1价差126锰硅2309基差-122-16锰硅5-9价差824宁夏硅铁利润47550宁夏锰硅利润-42264745333利润内蒙硅铁利润69350内蒙锰硅利润-28864725333硅铁2305158万04万锰硅2305147万-06万持仓情况硅铁230912万00万锰硅230909万00万主要图表图1硅铁现货价格元吨图2硅锰现货价格元吨宁夏硅铁内蒙硅铁宁夏硅锰内蒙硅锰190001500017000130001500013000110001100090009000700070005000500030003000202021202041202061202081202121202141202161202181202221202241202261202281202321202011202031202051202071202091202111202131202151202171202191202211202231202251202271202291202311202331202011202031202051202071202091202111202131202151202171202191202211202231202251202271202291202311202331202021202041202061202081202121202141202161202181202221202241202261202281202321202010120201212021101202112120221012022121202011120211112022111202011120211112022111202010120201212021101202112120221012022121图3硅铁现货利润元吨图4硅锰现货利润元吨宁夏虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润宁夏虚拟利润140001500120001000100005008000600004000-5002000-10000-2000201913202013202113202213202313图5硅铁05合约基差图6硅铁09合约基差SF2009基差SF2109基差SF2209基差SF2309基差SF2005基差SF2005基差SF2105基差SF2205基差8000700060006000500040004000300020002000100000-1000-2000-2000516616716816916101611161216116216316416916101611161216116216316416516616716816图7硅锰05合约基差图8硅锰09合约基差SM2009基差SM2109基差SM2209基差SM2309基差SM2005基差SM2105基差SM2205基差SM2305基差4000400035003000300025002000200015001000100050000-500-1000-1000516616716816916101611161216116216316416916101611161216116216316416516616716816图9硅铁9-1价差图10硅铁5-9价差SF2005-SF2009SF2105-SF2109SF2205-SF2209SF2305-SF230925002000150010005000-500-1000-1500-2000916101611161216116216316416图11硅锰9-1价差图12硅锰5-9价差SM2009-SM2101SM2109-SM2201SM2209-SM2301SM2309-SM2401SM2005-SM2009SM2105-SM2109SM2205-SM2209SM2305-SM23095001500400300100020010050000-100-200-500-300-400-1000117217317417517617717817917918101811181218118218318418免责声明本报告由东吴期货研究所制作及发布报告是基于本公司认为可靠的且目前已公开的信息撰写本公司力求但不保证该信息的准确性和完整性所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议投资者需自行承担风险未经本公司事先书面授权不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用删节修改及用于其它用途