30日硅铁主力合约盘面冲高午后回落，小幅收跌，硅锰小幅收涨，基本是受到宏观情绪影响所致，现货成交较为活跃。现货市场内蒙、宁夏地区硅铁现货价格上涨50点，天津港加蓬矿报价小幅上调0.2元/吨度，整体硅铁利润区间扩大，硅锰基本不变。从基本面来看，双硅整体偏弱，供给放缓的情况下，需求没有得到较大的改善，整体库存小幅垒库，基本面与宏观的矛盾为区间操作带来了可行性。整体上短期可以轻仓试多，中期建议逢高布空。

研究报告全文：铁合金数据日报2023131品种日内观点30日硅铁主力合约盘面冲高午后回落小幅收跌硅锰小幅收涨基本是受到宏观情绪影响所致现货硅铁成交较为活跃现货市场内蒙宁夏地区硅铁现货价格上涨50点天津港加蓬矿报价小幅上调02元吨度整体硅铁利润区间扩大硅锰基本不变从基本面来看双硅整体偏弱供给放缓的情况下需求没有得到较大的改善整体库存小幅垒库基本面与宏观的矛盾为区间操作带来了可行性整体上短期硅锰可以轻仓试多中期建议逢高布空产业链数据项目数据环比项目数据环比宁夏硅铁现价805050硅铁2305结算价853810内蒙硅铁现价805050硅铁2309结算价845816期现货市场宁夏锰硅现价73500锰硅2305结算价776470内蒙锰硅现价74000锰硅2309结算价769072硅铁2305基差-48840硅铁9-1价差430硅铁2309基差-40834硅铁5-9价差80-6基差及价差锰硅2305基差-364-20锰硅9-1价差10072锰硅2309基差-290-22锰硅5-9价差74-2宁夏硅铁利润876550宁夏锰硅利润-2825350利润内蒙硅铁利润792550内蒙锰硅利润-27453520硅铁2305105万00万锰硅2305188万-02万持仓情况硅铁230904万00万锰硅230903万00万主要图表图1硅铁现货价格元吨图2硅锰现货价格元吨宁夏硅铁内蒙硅铁宁夏硅锰内蒙硅锰190001500017000130001500013000110001100090009000700070005000500030003000202021202041202051202091202161202171202181202211202241202251202291202011202031202061202071202081202111202121202131202141202151202191202221202231202261202271202281202311202011202031202081202111202141202151202191202261202271202311202021202041202051202061202071202091202121202131202161202171202181202211202221202231202241202251202281202291202010120221012020111202012120211012021111202112120221112022121202110120201012020111202012120211112021121202210120221112022121图3硅铁现货利润元吨图4硅锰现货利润元吨宁夏虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润宁夏虚拟利润140001500120001000100005008000600004000-5002000-10000-2000201913202013202113202213202313图5硅铁05合约基差图6硅铁09合约基差SF2009基差SF2109基差SF2209基差SF2309基差SF2005基差SF2005基差SF2105基差SF2205基差8000700060006000500040004000300020002000100000-1000-2000-2000516616716816916101611161216116216316416916101611161216116216316416516616716816图7硅锰05合约基差图8硅锰09合约基差SM2009基差SM2109基差SM2209基差SM2309基差SM2005基差SM2105基差SM2205基差SM2305基差4000400035003000300025002000200015001000100050000-500-1000-1000516616716816916101611161216116216316416916101611161216116216316416516616716816图9硅铁9-1价差图10硅铁5-9价差SF2005-SF2009SF2105-SF2109SF2205-SF2209SF2305-SF230925002000150010005000-500-1000-1500-2000916101611161216116216316416图11硅锰9-1价差图12硅锰5-9价差SM2009-SM2101SM2109-SM2201SM2209-SM2301SM2309-SM2401SM2005-SM2009SM2105-SM2109SM2205-SM2209SM2305-SM23095001500400300100020010050000-100-200-500-300-400-1000117217317417517617717817917918101811181218118218318418免责声明本报告由东吴期货研究所制作及发布报告是基于本公司认为可靠的且目前已公开的信息撰写本公司力求但不保证该信息的准确性和完整性所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议投资者需自行承担风险未经本公司事先书面授权不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用删节修改及用于其它用途