4日双硅震荡走跌。成本端来看，冶金焦价格下跌100元/吨后持稳，氧化铁皮价格下跌后持稳，天津港澳矿、半碳酸价格上调0.1元/吨度，宁夏地区电价上周上调0.02元/度后持稳，硅锰成本线下降，利润区间扩大，硅铁成本小幅走低。1月钢招开启，硅铁主流价月环比上涨，处于8700-8800元/吨的位置，硅锰招标量1.6万吨。整体供给端双硅均有增量，需求虽有增量但不多，整体走平，库存积压，硅铁去库势头反转。目前黑色系情绪波动较大，建议在钢招区间轻仓操作，双硅以高空为主。

研究报告全文：铁合金数据日报202315品种日内观点4日双硅震荡走跌成本端来看冶金焦价格下跌100元吨后持稳氧化铁皮价格下跌后持稳天津港澳硅铁矿半碳酸价格上调01元吨度宁夏地区电价上周上调002元度后持稳硅锰成本线下降利润区间扩大硅铁成本小幅走低1月钢招开启硅铁主流价月环比上涨处于8700-8800元吨的位置硅锰招标量16万吨整体供给端双硅均有增量需求虽有增量但不多整体走平库存积压硅铁去库势头反硅锰转目前黑色系情绪波动较大建议在钢招区间轻仓操作双硅以高空为主产业链数据项目数据环比项目数据环比宁夏硅铁现价80500硅铁2305结算价8306-20内蒙硅铁现价80500硅铁2301结算价87328期现货市场宁夏锰硅现价73000锰硅2305结算价75582内蒙锰硅现价73000锰硅2301结算价7586-34硅铁2305基差-25620硅铁1-5价差46034硅铁2301基差-682-8硅铁5-9价差7832基差及价差锰硅2305基差-258-2锰硅1-5价差28-36锰硅2301基差-28634锰硅5-9价差808宁夏硅铁利润855515宁夏锰硅利润-276758-75555利润内蒙硅铁利润771515内蒙锰硅利润-298758-75555硅铁230586万02万锰硅2305170万00万持仓情况硅铁230109万-01万锰硅230102万00万主要图表图1硅铁现货价格元吨图2硅锰现货价格元吨宁夏硅铁内蒙硅铁宁夏硅锰内蒙硅锰190001500017000130001500013000110001100090009000700070005000500030003000202271202011202021202031202041202051202061202071202081202091202111202121202131202141202151202161202171202181202191202211202221202231202241202251202261202281202291202311202021202051202071202111202131202151202161202181202211202231202241202261202281202291202011202031202041202061202081202091202121202141202171202191202221202251202271202311202212120201012020111202012120211012021111202112120221012022111202010120201212021101202111120221112020111202112120221012022121图3硅铁现货利润元吨图4硅锰现货利润元吨宁夏虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润宁夏虚拟利润140001500120001000100005008000600004000-5002000-10000-2000201913202013202113202213202313图5硅铁05合约基差图6硅铁01合约基差SF2001基差SF2101基差SF2201基差SF2301基差SF2005基差SF2005基差SF2105基差SF2205基差50007000600040005000300040002000300010002000010000-1000-1000-2000-2000116216316416516616716816916101611161216516616716816916101611161216116216316416图7硅锰05合约基差图8硅锰01合约基差SM2005基差SM2105基差SM2205基差SM2305基差SM2001基差SM2101基差SM2201基差SM2301基差40003000250030002000150020001000100050000-500-1000-1000516616716816916101611161216116216316416116216316416516616716816916101611161216图9硅铁1-5价差图10硅铁5-9价差SF2001-SF2005SF2101-SF2105SF2201-SF2205SF2301-SF2305SF2005-SF2009SF2105-SF2109SF2205-SF2209SF2305-SF230925003500200030001500250010002000500150001000-500500-10000-1500-500-2000-10009161016111612161162163164165206962971988828917107102711161261226115图11硅锰1-5价差图12硅锰5-9价差SM2001-SM2005SM2101-SM2105SM2201-SM2205SM2301-SM2305SM2005-SM2009SM2105-SM2109SM2205-SM2209SM2305-SM23092000150015001000100050050000-500-500-1000-10005206962971988828917107102711161261226115918101811181218118218318418免责声明本报告由东吴期货研究所制作及发布报告是基于本公司认为可靠的且目前已公开的信息撰写本公司力求但不保证该信息的准确性和完整性所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议投资者需自行承担风险未经本公司事先书面授权不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用删节修改及用于其它用途