近期聚烯烃震荡抬升，现实基本面矛盾不大，库存中性偏低，盘面交易更偏宏观。当前短期重要会议结束，盘面支撑明显转弱。就聚烯烃自身基本面而言，利润已经显著修复，尤其是油制利润，检修短暂增加后已经回归，进口利润较好，美金成交较好，一季度PE和PP均有200万吨以上的新增产能投放，下游开工也在边际下降，现实压力在累积，短期价格偏空

研究报告全文：银河期货聚烯烃周报能化投资研究部周琴投资咨询资格证号Z00159432022年12月19日银河能化微信公众号主要观点近期聚烯烃震荡抬升现实基本面矛盾不大库存中性偏低盘面交易更偏宏观当前短期重要会议结束盘面支撑明显转弱就聚烯烃自身基本面而言利润已经显著修复尤其是油制利润检修短暂增加后已经回归进口利润较好美金成交较好一季度PE和PP均有200万吨以上的新增产能投放下游开工也在边际下降现实压力在累积短期价格偏空GALAXYFUTURES1PE概述项目基本面及变化上周PE去库存总库存环比下降32万吨其中两油去库22万吨煤化工去库08万吨贸易商累库01万吨港口去库库存03万吨2022年11月国内PE产量21157万吨环比下降403同比增加561累计同比增加662上周PE开工负荷在产量8117环比下降095个百分点10月PE进口量114万吨环比下降61同比增加71累计同比下降9910月出口量59万吨环比增加21同比增加794累计同比增加34811月初级塑料进口量2776万吨环比增加72预期11月PE进口量在122万吨附进出口近由于本轮销售周期接近尾声多数供应商销售任务已经完成上周配售额有限但有国际供应商开始新一轮周期的销售有较大量的美国线性向中国报盘美金报价较上周稳中有所回升由于进口窗口打开贸易商采购美金货较为积极美金成交尚可110月PE消费3389万吨环比下降17同比增长101累计同比增长342上周农膜开工下降2个百分点至50包装开工下降1个百分点至56管材开工下降2个百分点至42其余行业开需求工暂稳目前下游各行业主流开工在42-56411月塑料制品出口量922亿美元同比下降41累计同比增长102期现价差上周塑料震荡抬升05合约周度上涨173华北现货周度上涨12305基差走弱40至-351-5价差降52至-25估值上周油制PE利润下降173元吨至215元吨煤制利润上涨42元吨至-244元吨进口利润下降150元吨至194元吨GALAXYFUTURES2PP概述项目基本面及变化上周PP去库存总库存环比下降29万吨其中两油去库09万吨煤化工去库16万吨贸易商去库03万吨港口库存与库存上周持平11月PP产量279万吨环比下降32同比增长9累计同比增长10上周国内聚丙烯装置开工负荷率为8418较产量上一周上升163个百分点较去年同期下降396个百分点上周国内聚丙烯装置停车损失量约782万吨较上一周减少132万吨10月PP进口量为4273万吨环比下降128同比增加137累计同比下降7611月初级塑料进口量2776万吨环比增加72预期11月PP进口量在458万吨附近由于本轮销售周期接近尾声多数供应商已经完成销售任务因此上周美金报价明显减少报价有所回升目前进口依然顺挂贸易商采购美金意愿较强但是因上周外商配售额不多因此进出口整体美金成交量不大10月PP出口量52万吨环比增加82同比下降94累计同比增长07上周煤化工PP均聚出口报价980-1000美元吨FOB中国主港PDH产PP共聚出口报价1030美元吨出口窗口关闭未闻出口成交近期东南亚市场需求依然低迷印度市场虽稍有改善但是短期出口依旧非常困难110月PP消费量323万吨日均消费环比下降15同比增长81累计同比增长262上周BOPP和注塑行业开工均下降1个百分点塑编米袋等包装袋订单稳定其他类订单偏差企业成品库存依然高企需求BOPP膜市场成交转淡整体成交量减少注塑加工企业订单欠佳尤其小企业订单偏差个别样本企业停车卓创调研来看短期下游工厂备货积极性一般311月塑料制品出口量922亿美元同比下降41累计同比增长102期现价差上周PP价格震荡抬升05合约周度上涨186华东现货周度上涨14305基差走弱35至-1531-5价差下降16至-47上周油制PP利润下降123元吨至-85元吨PDH利润上涨224元吨至-450元吨煤制利润降23元吨至-309元吨进口估值利润上涨23元吨至177元吨GALAXYFUTURES3目录第一章PE主要数据5第二章PP主要数据22GALAXYFUTURES4PE产业链价格分类名称2022121620221209上年同期周涨跌周涨跌幅年涨跌年涨跌幅分类名称2022121620221209上年同期周涨跌周涨跌幅年涨跌年涨跌幅布伦特现货价792776749220457油制PE利润2153881445-1731-4465-12307-8515原油布伦特主793768746232562CTO利润-244-2861073420-1471-13160-12270WTI主745716720341335LL进口利润含税194345-171-1508-43743647-21356CFR日本641616870652540-65-922LL进口利润免税41756273-1455-2587343947115石脑油FOB鹿特丹577563686143253-1085-1583利润LDPE进口利润241250152-89-3588845808煤坑口煤价9909808451010145172HD薄膜进口利润222203-4511838996729-14908江苏出罐ICIS26352667527625-325-122-1275-462HD中空进口利润190162-1028275169712175-11844甲醇CFR中国ICIS27352715323520074-50-1546HD注塑进口利润283338-764-558-164810461-13700甲醇主力256724942677730293-110-411HD拉丝进口利润256238-102817372412835-12486CFR东北亚8818911061-100-112-180-1697LLDCFR中国9559351145200214-1900-1659CFR东南亚9219211041000-120-1153LD薄膜CFR中国102510101455150149-4300-2955乙烯FD美国海湾美分磅20193511593-15-4325HD中空CFR中国88587010675150172-1825-1710FD西北欧欧元吨8278451246-185-219-419-3364PECFR中国HD薄膜CFR中国9259101140150165-2150-1886L01821081228523880108-313-367HD注塑低熔指CFR中国885885102500-1400-1366L058235809584311400173-196-232HD注塑高熔指CFR中国9159151062500-1475-1388L098194803583491590198-155-186HD注塑不分熔指CFR中国9009001042500-1425-1367PE华北LLD8200810086001000123-400-465LLDCFR东南亚9719710009710DIV0LD华北89008800116501000114-27500-2361LLDFOB中东9369261134100108-1980-1746PE价格HD膜810080508700500062-6000-690LLDFD西北欧12511251152100-2700-1775HD中空810080508300500062-2000-241LLDFAS休斯顿9059271401-220-237-4960-3540HD拉丝808080208050600075300037LDCFR东南亚10711071145100-3800-2619HD管材83758425NA-500-059NANALDFOB中东101610061424100099-4080-2865HD注塑低熔79507950790000500063LDFD西北欧13811381178100-4000-2246L01基差-10-2277120-5455-870-11299LDFAS休斯顿993993151100-5180-3428L05基差-355169-400-80000-2040-12071HD膜CFR东南亚971971115100-1800-1564L09基差665251-590-9077-2450-9761PE外盘价格HD膜FOB中东9269161124100109-1980-1762基差月差L1-5价差-252792-520-19259-1170-12717HD膜FD西北欧184518472186-20-011-3410-1560L5-9价差416082-190-3167-410-5000HD膜FAS休斯顿9059271434-220-237-5290-3689L9-1价差-16-87-174710-81611580-9080HD中空CFR东南亚9369611071-250-260-1350-1261LD-LLD700700305000-23500-7705HD中空CFR东南亚9369611071-250-260-1350-1261HD膜-LLD膜-100-50100-50010000-2000-20000HD中空FD西北欧180218052130-30-017-3280-1540HD中空-LLD膜-100-50-300-500100002000-6667HD中空FAS休斯敦8839051467-220-243-5840-3981HD拉丝-LLD膜-120-80-550-40050004300-7818HD注塑CFR东南亚941941107100-1300-1214非标价差HD管材-LLD膜95175NA-800-4571NANAHD注塑FD西北欧180218052130-30-017-3280-1540HD注塑-LLD膜-250-150-700-100066674500-6429HD注塑FAS休斯敦9059271445-220-237-5400-3737PE回料含税68906890705300-1628-231L-PP现货420430500-100-800PE新料-回料1310121015481000826-2373-1533L-PP01324365327-410-30L-PPL-PP05302307294-5080L-PP09279255265240140资料来源卓创ICISwind隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES5PE利润PE成本2022121686008494120008500100008400800083008235820081716000820081004000803580007948200079007800202014202034202054202074202094202114202134202154202174202194202214202234202254202274202294202011420211147700油制成本CTO成本进口成本免税7600进口成本含税L主力L现货油制成本CTO成本进口成本免税进口成本含税L主力L现货油制PE利润煤制PE利润550010000450080003500600025004000150020005000500-20001500-40002500-6000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201120122013201420152016201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022201720182019202020212022资料来源卓创ICISwind隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES6PE利润缠绕膜利润LL进口利润PE新料-回料35001000350030008003000600250040020002500200150014815200001000200500150040001000600-500-5175800-1000500100011213141516171819110111112101200112131415161718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