15日双硅盘面先抑后扬，整体小幅收跌，双硅价差缩小。成本端冶金焦、锰矿价格涨后持稳，宁夏内蒙地区电价下调后持稳，硅铁利润区间扩大，硅锰亏损有所缓和。硅铁本周产量与往年齐平，但企业开工率下降至43%，处于同期历史最低水平，硅锰产量及开工率均处在较高的水平。从需求端来看，粗钢产量表现平平，镁锭11月产量下滑严重，但硅锰周需求迎来一个小幅的回升，说明宏观利好政策反馈起到了一些效果。整体硅铁库存轻微垒库，硅锰去库势头迅猛，但整体库存依旧偏高。总的来说，基本面硅铁较松，硅锰偏紧，短期硅锰可轻仓试多，中期要看下游钢材需求是否好转。

研究报告全文：铁合金数据日报20221216品种日内观点15日双硅盘面先抑后扬整体小幅收跌双硅价差缩小成本端冶金焦锰矿价格涨后持稳宁夏内蒙硅铁地区电价下调后持稳硅铁利润区间扩大硅锰亏损有所缓和硅铁本周产量与往年齐平但企业开工率下降至43处于同期历史最低水平硅锰产量及开工率均处在较高的水平从需求端来看粗钢产量表现平平镁锭11月产量下滑严重但硅锰周需求迎来一个小幅的回升说明宏观利好政策反馈起到了硅锰一些效果整体硅铁库存轻微垒库硅锰去库势头迅猛但整体库存依旧偏高总的来说基本面硅铁较松硅锰偏紧短期硅锰可轻仓试多中期要看下游钢材需求是否好转产业链数据项目数据环比项目数据环比宁夏硅铁现价81000硅铁2305结算价852018内蒙硅铁现价815050硅铁2301结算价8666-12期现货市场宁夏锰硅现价730050锰硅2305结算价764854内蒙锰硅现价730050锰硅2301结算价772432硅铁2305基差-500-18硅铁1-5价差146-30硅铁2301基差-64612硅铁5-9价差9026基差及价差锰硅2305基差-348-4锰硅1-5价差76-22锰硅2301基差-42418锰硅5-9价差10434宁夏硅铁利润112050宁夏锰硅利润-200313550利润内蒙硅铁利润834550内蒙锰硅利润-388313520硅铁230598万02万锰硅2305111万26万持仓情况硅铁2301125万-19万锰硅2301117万-10万主要图表图1硅铁现货价格元吨图2硅锰现货价格元吨宁夏硅铁内蒙硅铁宁夏硅锰内蒙硅锰190001500017000130001500013000110001100090009000700070005000500030003000202011202031202041202051202061202071202081202161202181202191202211202021202091202111202121202131202141202151202171202221202231202241202251202261202271202281202291202021202121202231202251202271202011202031202041202051202061202071202081202091202111202131202141202151202161202171202181202191202211202221202241202261202281202291202010120201212021101202111120211212020111202210120221112022121202010120201112020121202110120211112021121202210120221112022121图3硅铁现货利润元吨图4硅锰现货利润元吨宁夏虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润宁夏虚拟利润140001500120001000100005008000600004000-5002000-10000-2000201913202013202113202213图5硅铁05合约基差图6硅铁01合约基差SF2001基差SF2101基差SF2201基差SF2301基差SF2005基差SF2005基差SF2105基差SF2205基差50007000600040005000300040002000300010002000010000-1000-1000-2000-2000116216316416516616716816916101611161216516616716816916101611161216116216316416图7硅锰05合约基差图8硅锰01合约基差SM2005基差SM2105基差SM2205基差SM2305基差SM2001基差SM2101基差SM2201基差SM2301基差40003000250030002000150020001000100050000-500-1000-1000516616716816916101611161216116216316416116216316416516616716816916101611161216图9硅铁1-5价差图10硅铁5-9价差SF2001-SF2005SF2101-SF2105SF2201-SF2205SF2301-SF2305SF2005-SF2009SF2105-SF2109SF2205-SF2209SF2305-SF230925003500200030001500250010002000500150001000-500500-10000-1500-500-2000-10009161016111612161162163164165206962971988828917107102711161261226115图11硅锰1-5价差图12硅锰5-9价差SM2001-SM2005SM2101-SM2105SM2201-SM2205SM2301-SM2305SM2005-SM2009SM2105-SM2109SM2205-SM2209SM2305-SM23092000150015001000100050050000-500-500-1000-10005206962971988828917107102711161261226115918101811181218118218318418免责声明本报告由东吴期货研究所制作及发布报告是基于本公司认为可靠的且目前已公开的信息撰写本公司力求但不保证该信息的准确性和完整性所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议投资者需自行承担风险未经本公司事先书面授权不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用删节修改及用于其它用途